Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[TJ Parker]

if you truly believe the numbers that you are quoting, then you should trade the ABX,

http://www.markit.com/information/products/category/indices/abx.html

those numbers suggest that players are much more pessimistic.

note, even if i were to believe your numbers, or those implied by scenario argued by mccain's plan, one would have to assume that housing prices have bottomed and that it is worthwhile to prop them up at these levels. and with mortgages where they are, credit as tight as it is (and will be far into the future) and a recession looming, that just ain't gonna happen. following housing futures, assume a bottom from between 2010 (california) to 2012 (elsewhere), and then see if that plan still makes sense.

hint: it will end up costing far more than projected and, if anything, will only delay the arrival of the bottom.