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Monday, June 07, 2004 12:12:06 PM
Count: I agree with what you say about the need to license 3G. However, if the arbitration board comes up with a one time settlement payment close to what IDCC says is due ($300 - $370 million), I don’t' think that will be ignored by the market.
The results of the Nokia arbitration will have a big impact on the share value. The resolution will not only be for back royalties, but will also set the rate for 2G going forward for Nokia. With that license in hand, IDCC should be able to go to other non-payers and lead to similar agreements. One might even say a positive resolution would be a watershed for IDCC. Those recurring 2G revenues will give IDCC a strong, predicable earnings base. Those earnings will make IDCC attractive to more conservative investors and give them the visibility they require.
The catch up amount will also have a significant affect on the share price because it will be so large. However the affect probably will not be much more than the total dollars received divided by the shares outstanding. It is important, but not nearly as important as the ongoing revenues.
If we can continue build on the recent 3G licensing success in a timely manner, then IDCC will have a great future tied to the success of their licensees instead of their lawyers.
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