Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[alan81]

mirrorbit growth rate...
it is a bit hard to tell from the graph, but these are the numbers I came up with...
Q4 '03 125 to 175 = 50
Q1 04 150 to 200 = 50 (no growth)
Q2 04 190 to 250 = 60 20% growth QonQ
Q3 04 190 to 290 = 100 or 67% growth Q on Q
Q4 04 190 to 360 = 170 or 70% growth Q on Q

Now it may be that they have already booked the mirrorbit output for Q3 and Q4 and the inflection in growth rate from about 10%/quarter to 70%/quarter will really happen... but I think it is just a prediction.

In terms of flash capacity, I think kpf explained it... The concern is over JV1 and JV2. If we look at the capacity graph http://www.veracast.com/sbcitigroup/semiconductor_2004/events/2021_advanc/slides/slide23.jpg
So how do you get that to show up as a picture? I thought it was a <chart> tag, but that did not seem to work in preview.

We see a fairly steady runrate of 230nm capacity. In 2002 AMD took a charge of about $300M to shutdown two older logic factories. I would tend to follow the advise of KFP and believe that AMD will do a better job this time and move employees over to JV4 when it is time to close JV1 and/or JV2... but until that time I do believe they will be a drag on gross margins.
--Alan