Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[sgolds]

alan81 -

Is the rapid ramp occuring? Or is it predicted to occur. It appears the Q2 number is up slightly, but the real jump does not happen until Q4.

The ramp is occurring. Note that this foil was shown in the last week so Q2 numbers are in the bag. It shows Q3 significantly higher (about 50% higher) than Q2, and then a doubling from Q3 to Q4. You know what the lead times are like for flash designs, the OEM commitments for Q3 and Q4 came many months ago (although they are booked when shipped).

In terms of supporting older products on older technologies, the high volume products will be cost reduced onto the newer technologies. The problem Spansion has is they have some older factories that it appears they have no plan, or method, to upgrade to more modern facilities.

Fab 30. Not announced, but no reason to expect anything different from when Fab 25 transitioned from CPUs to flash. Once Fab 36 is up and running with 300mm/65nm CPUs then expect such an announcement (2006 with conversion in 2007). Just history repeating itself.

The other thing that is interesting to note (since you posted the foils) is that the difference in cost between 110nm floating gate and 110nm mirrorbit is not really the 2X that they have been talking about in the past. I was expecting this to happen, but am surprised AMD is displaying it so prominently.

I think this is a misunderstanding. Density doubles but that does not mean cost is cut in half. Now, it is accurate to say that cost is cut because density per cell is doubled. Some may try to turn double density into half cost, but that does not make it so.