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Re: northam43 post# 15466

Wednesday, 09/10/2008 4:30:49 PM

Wednesday, September 10, 2008 4:30:49 PM

Post# of 31925
North - One of the biggest problems is that many subscribers do not understand and/or appreciate normal statistical variation, and often demand that over any arbitrary time period (e.g. the time of their membership) that the system performance *must* be equal to or better than the historical performance, even though the statistics virtually guarantee that there will be flat to down periods. Accordingly, when the statistics do turn negative for a time, lacking the patience and discipline to allow the statistics to work for them or perhaps the courage to make the necessary trades, they often declare that your system is broken and leave with shattered expectations, essentially making the same mistake of many novice traders of "selling at the bottom", and then they continue their search for the Holy Grail that will make easy money for them with little or no effort on their part.

Depending on the game, the Vegas edge is ~ 2-6%, but the House knows that the more times the game is played, the more the results will match the statistical prediction, so they don't get upset and happily pay off when someone by just dumb luck hits a streak or a jackpot. It is the ones who have an edge with a "system" that the House gets *very* upset about.

Kind regards,
-CAPT J

"What would you attempt to do if you knew you could not fail?"

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