Earnings growth has shown acceleration.
Ford's earnings momentum measures the acceleration or deceleration in trailing 12 month operating
earnings per share growth. The upward curvature of the plotted points in the graph on the left indicates
that while SSL's earnings have increased from $3.44 to an estimated $4.67 over the past 5 quarters,
they have shown acceleration in quarterly growth rates when adjusted for the volatility of earnings. This
indicates an improvement in future earnings growth may occur.
Over thirty years of research have shown that the major catalyst of price performance is the change in
the growth of earnings per share. Ford measures earnings momentum and analysts' forecast changes
to get an early indication of changing earnings patterns.
Very undervalued according to earnings yield.
SSL's operating earnings yield of 8.5% ranks above 82% of the other companies in the Ford universe of
stocks, indicating that it is very undervalued.
Ford measures the relative valuation of each company against all other companies in our research
universe. Operating earnings yield, an earnings-to-price ratio based on the last 3 quarters of operating
earnings and the current quarter's estimate, has proven to be the most reliable relative valuation
measure. A stock may stay undervalued or overvalued for a long period of time. For this reason it is
important to combine this factor with short term catalysts such as earnings momentum or price
momentum that may unlock potential valuation adjustments.
Very Positive price momentum. Expect above average performance.
SSL's stock price is up 36.7% in the last 12 months, down 12.6% in the past quarter and up 3.9% in the
past month. This historical performance should lead to above average price performance in the next
one to three months.
Another important catalyst, especially in regard to intermediate and short term performance, is the
historical price action of the company. Long term historical performance is a good indicator of future
price performance, but much more importantly, large price movements over the intermediate and short
term tend to reverse themselves. Ford's price momentum measure integrates historical long and short
term price changes creating ratings that are highest for stocks with strong twelve month price
performance that have a price consolidation in the past quarter and especially the past month.
A good quality rating.
SSL is considered good quality based on its size, average financial leverage and low earnings volatility.
Good quality companies on average exhibit an average degree of price volatility.
While not part of the overall recommendation, Ford's quality rating has been a good indicator of the
potential price volatility of a company. Ford measures quality based on company size, financial leverage
and the volatility of earnings. Quality may not have a direct relationship to performance, but it does
have a close relationship to the dispersion of returns among individual stocks. Attractive, high quality
companies can have less downside volatility in weak markets and often produce strong returns during
complete market cycles.
Regards,
frenchee
#board-4258 TSP Trend Timing: EFA (I), TLT (F), SPY (C), and VXF (S)
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