GZFX realistic price targets......
Nflx market cap 1.6 bil at $31.26 / share w/ 2.0 mil
subscribers and aprox 51 mil shares outstanding.
IF Gzfx had the same revenue per sub and the same operating costs:
When we have 2 mil subs-
Market cap 1.6 bil / 520 mil o/s = $3.08 per share
I'm not at all saying that is the limit to the potential here but it reels in some outlandish PPS predictions.
One tenth of that is 200,000 subs. This would put us at
$3.08 / 10 = $.31. We should see .31 not when we have 200k but as soon as there can be a realistic projection that 200,000 is coming. This could happen very soon IMO.
But there are some huge variables to kick around. First, the impact the Gameznflix guy will have is unknown. Nflx
claims to be getting approx 160,000 new subs per month
during thier heavy marketing periods. If we were to see
a number like 30,000 to 40,000 subs the first 30 days,
and sequentialy higher the second 30 days, we could be off to the races. What if we were to get 50 to 75K the first
month? That could project to 475,000 by yr end!
1st mo 30k
2nd mo 40k
3rd mo 50k....this would put us at 330,000 by year end.
330,000 / 2mil = .165 x $3.00 = $.50
The market should lead this by 4-6 mos, so $.50 by Aug is do-able.
I know some will think these sub numbers too high (in
light of JF's stated goal of 100K),and some will think they
are too low.
Remember even if these numbers for subs are correct, it
works only if revenue and cost per sub are same as nflx.
First, we know our rev per sub is lower. But our cost per
sub should be A LOT LOWER!
Here's the real kicker no one has spoken much about. What if this little baby starts to turn a profit in say Q3?
I know for a fact JF intends to IMPROVE the nflx business
model, not just copy it! This means PROFITABILITY, and earlier than anyone thinks.
Let NFLX have their 1 day turn-arounds w/ 26 dist. centrs.
They spent WAY too much to achieve that. The 1 and 2 day
flippers aren't even what NFLX wants. They would go out of business if all their subs did that! Yet they spent a fortune to have that capability! Big mistake!
The genius is the GZFX yearly(14 month) at $15.85 / month.
With a 6 DVD/games combo, the turnaround time can very
easily be pushed out a little with no pain to the sub.
This info copied & posted off RB
