Alloy Steel Inc. (fka AYSI)

[ambulance_blues]

Replacement rate

Is there any way to get some statistics on the amount of Arcoplate that is used for replacing old wearplate, compared to the amount of Arcoplate being used to fit new machines? When growth in commodities reaches maturity, AYSI will want to be positioned for replacement orders, but if the Arcoplate has a life expectancy of 3 years or more, then that really diminishes our service potential it seems. Maybe I'm wrong, but is anyone thinking about this stuff?

BUCY has taken a haircut recently, probably due to concerns about sustainable growth in their mining equipment sales. I know that AYSI is small, and we can find our niche market regardless, but I think some people here are banking on NEW mine construction to fuel Arcoplate sales. What happens if those new mines don't materialize?

A bearish article came out today about BUCY:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/commodities-pumped-up-bucyrus-point/story.aspx?guid=%7BD9F600C4%2DBFFC%2D4909%2DAB7A%2DFEBC08CF346D%7D&siteid=yhoof

some quotes....

"...While average investors might look at Bucyrus as a way to play commodities without investing in the more speculative, metal or ore businesses or exchange-traded funds, there's no denying that the company's ability to sustain those great growth numbers rides almost completely on commodity prices, something company management can't control.

Bucyrus' mining machines are used for extracting coal, copper, oil sands and iron ore, and as the prices of those commodities have bounded higher mining companies have thrown a fortune into new equipment. The moment the commodities situation changes -- prices don't have to crater, they just need to get off the current growth path -- the new-contract music stops; the ride up is fabulous, but a past bankruptcy is proof that the fall can be murder.

To its credit, Bucyrus has shifted some of its attention to the service side of the business, reducing its dependence on new sales; there has also been more focus on international sales and efforts to broaden a client list that is top-heavy with a few big names. Those things are positives, but this company is still floating on bubble power, rather than making a controlled ascent.

"The bottom line is that this company has minimal ability to control its own fate," says Joel Bloomer, who follows the stock for Morningstar Inc. "Bucyrus' prosperity is primarily controlled by commodity prices. When oil and copper prices are very high, the stock will do well, but they have no control over those prices. When those prices are down and no one is demanding mining equipment, they will do poorly."