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Re: rainbow12345 post# 15032

Thursday, 07/10/2008 7:40:36 AM

Thursday, July 10, 2008 7:40:36 AM

Post# of 31925
Rainbow - When evaluating systems on C2, you need to be careful about comparing apples to oranges. Many only seem to focus on the posted annual returns, but you also have to consider the risk/reward equation. Using *exactly* the same signal and trading strategy, a system trading a 2X vehicle (or greater if using margin) will have much higher returns than a system trading at 1X over the same period, but also be exposed to much higher drawdowns. An approximation of the annual 2X return is given by ((1+X)^2)-1, where X is the 1X return, so 50% at 1X would be ~ 125% at 2X, primarily due to daily compounding. Compare MVP3, which trades the MVV/MZZ 2X ETFs, sometimes with margin, to TMG II, which trades 3K shares of QQQQ (~ 1.1X), or even better, compare TMG II to TMG II Futures, which currently trades just *one* NQ contract (~.8X).


Kind regards,
-CAPT J

"What would you attempt to do if you knew you could not fail?"

Kind regards,
-CAPT J

"What would you attempt to do if you knew you could not fail?"

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