BB - it is confusing, to say the least. This will be the second time this month the Dow has touched 10,200. If it bounces the next couple of weeks back to 10.5ish I'd feel a little better - just a little, mind you. If it doesn't I'm thinking of moving all my 401k (currently 100% Fidelity Small Cap) into treasuries. As far as trading goes, who the hell knows. You know as well as anyone the movers are going to be even harder to find.
Personally, I think the closer we get to November, the weirder things are going to get. Our enemies are emboldened by the success of their attack on Spain and I think we will get hit in the next few months. They are evil, but far from stupid. This country is too big to be completely protected. It is an absolute impossibility, and they know this. They have seen how easily we can be divided since 9/11. Right or wrong, they see Kerry as an appeaser and weak and they would much rather have him in the White House than Bush. The inability to prevent an attack on the US will be blamed on Bush and Kerry will win easliy. I think Wall Street is bracing for the same scenario and trigger fingers are itchy - no one wants to get caught holding the bag, but at the same time they hate to pass up a bargain. So we bounce. We bounced off 10,000 - now we're bouncing off 10,200 for the second time in a month(hopefully!)
I think in the next 2 weeks we'll see an uptrend - and hopefully stay in this 10.5 - 10.2 channel. If not, look out. Short everything! But as November looms closer, I'm afraid it's going to be ugly - and this time it will be real blood on the streets, unfortunately.
AI
