Tri-Valley Corp (fka TVLYQ)

[jonesieatl]

geoscience , guilium , re: Russell

Geo , I probably wasn't going to do as thorough an analysis/prediction as we did last year , but per your request and in light of what guilium just posted I went through the exercise this morning , including Ms. Roberts' prediction as a possible minimum market capitalization required for Russell 2000 inclusion.

(Welcome back guilium , haven't seen you here in quite a while , thanks for posting that article/link.)

My next post will detail what IMO are the available facts , a bit of analysis of them , and will include an update of last year's spreadsheet. By waiting until after the 'inclusion market cap. date' we have all of the info necessary so I'll take what was a multi-post thread last year and sum up this year's analysis into one post. It will be long but it will all be in one spot. You can skip to the end of it and see the spreadsheet.

Pay particular attention to the float-adjustment section as Russell's float-adjustment methodology component may bear on this year's outcome for Tri-Valley.

If anyone has a suggestion for any changes or additions , please let me know.

guilium , I see that Ms. Roberts made a prediction for the 2007 Reconstitution. On 5/25/07 she revised her earlier estimate upwards , "According to a May 24 report written by KBW analyst Melissa Roberts, KBW estimates that the cutoff for inclusion in the Russell 2000 Index has moved back up to approximately $256 million from the previously reported May 18 estimate of $249 million."

So last year she went on record at $256.0 million.

http://www.snl.com/irweblinkx/story.aspx?IID=4092630&NID=5803196

I was on record at $262.1 million.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=20083111

And the actual was $261.8 million.

Her recent statement about the Russell 2000 being down 12% since the last Reconstitution appears to be off by about 23% , with the actual number being -9.27%.

However , her 2007 prediction was certainly close enough to include her 2008 prediction "as a possible minimum market capitalization required for Russell 2000 inclusion."

jonesie