I think full capacity will probably be more than double what we got last Q. Not sure if the 2nd mill could do 150% of that or not. We do need to note there was a little downtime in the last report.
I personally would be rather shocked if some kind of financing happened unless they are about to get absolutely buried in orders or unless they get some decent terms (or a combo would be great). But I know Gene is certainly dwelling on it to some extent (probably because he knows what is coming IMO- a lot more work).
A third mill IMO will be set up so they can have a 4th mill brought online not too far afterwards and so on (5, 6, etc if it all goes as planned) so my guess is they would be looking for something longer term and maybe with a fair amount of space.
Gene, I agree, acts cautiously and has been that way for years (he has waited for them to get pretty backed up IMO to get the 2nd mill up and running and waited for their own internal cash to provide for purchasing it).
I personally was thinking there might be a chance for some kind of deal (maybe licensing deal or maybe a supply deal for a major company in the US, something like that) if my speculating about the US trip was to add up to anything since both Alan and Gene were gone simultaneously for some time. It may not. Guess maybe we'll see in the next couple weeks.
If not, the 2nd mill is on the way and I think things will continue on very well. The occassional lumps and bumps of course. The lumpiness of having one mill should hopefully settle with the 2nd mill evening things out a little bit for fiscal next year and a bit of the last Q this year and also probably increase productiveness and margins relative to other fixed costs.
Your thoughts sound pretty levelheaded IMO regarding the 3 points you mention.
PS- I'm not certain it (3rd mill) is a long ways off. It could be, but maybe not. I'm interested in seeing what FMG has to say in their July expansion update... If FMG were to be granted shared rail access then there IMO would be even more need to ramp quicker. Throw in general customer thoughts of the product and lack of exposure outside Australia and it isn't terribly hard to see IF things work out well to se ethis take off with their cost structure.
We'll see:)
I don't mind stealing bread from the mouths of decadence... But I can't feed on the powerless when my cup's already overfilled.
-Temple of the Dog
"We didn't build this company on the sniff of an oily rag."
-Anonymous
I don't mind stealing bread from the mouths of decadence... But I can't feed on the powerless when my cup's already overfilled.
-Temple of the Dog
"We didn't build this company on the sniff of an oily rag."
-Anonymous
