Roundup/Jim: Great post, thanks for the insight!
2 News leaks:
1) I am told the Freightliner deal should be announced very soon from. XM had targeted this company but I am told that a written agreement has now been signed. Freightliner, as you are likely aware, makes about 40% of all US made trucks in America. So that should help the OEM truck market enormously.
I love my PNP and wondered how the truck market would relate to the PNP, since it is cheaper than the mirrior mounted antennas.
Could the pnp antenna be fastened with velcro anywhere you would like it to be, even on the top of the trailer?I have an industrial velcro which is damn near impossible to get apart for my radar detector. Radio Shack carries it I believe. It is extremely agressive.
If it would work someone gets a whole unit for a rig for $270 and it is portable, short of all the velcro.
2) It was also leaked that during the Daytona 500, and when the Sports Ilustrated put XM as a center fold in the Swim Suit Issue, a little while ago, XM acquired close to 15,000 subs in a very few days. If this turns out to be valid the subs for 1st Qtr 2002 should be fine. Much More importantly if this is valid then XM acquired about 50% of what it did for subs in the first 6weeks in 2001, which was 30K subs.The significance of this would be that ordinarily in electronics XMAS sales account for up to 60%-70% of annual.
So if this leak is true, this is a real coup.
The above are two leaks which I have heard recently, and personally place a 50% probability in. ** Although I have not gone and bought any stock based on them, at this point* they are merely rumors and nothing more. Nice if they happen, guess we will see.
Just some fun, speculative math to illustrate revenue potentials:
XM commercials should be replaced as the audience grows, then the paid advertisers should take over the current XM spots. When this happens the math indicates that :
6mins per hour of commercials, times 60 stations = 600mins x $100/min fee= $60,000/hr time X 12hrs/day(50% capacity)= $720,000/day(at a 50% level) x 350 days/ yr =$252,000,000/yr in advertising revs.
This is in adittion to subscriber revenue. The total market estimated at 45 million users(2 independent firms) taking 20% = 9,000,000 subs/yr x $120 per yr sub chg =$ 1,800,000,000. (in 10yrs).
Potentially this stock has a huge amount of revenue and if you are less conservative than me the numbers grow expotentially.
Thanks again,
john
