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Re: Conrad post# 1211

Saturday, 03/02/2002 7:34:12 PM

Saturday, March 02, 2002 7:34:12 PM

Post# of 47297
Hello Conrad,

-- Lichello never made a million dollar with his AIMs...he was too busy tinkering with it...

Lichello never made the million because his method cannot possibly make a million (out of $10k) - except with a contrived example. There is no way to get big gains without risking a wipe-out. And if AIM is protecting us from a wipe-out, it is also preventing us from getting a big gain. Which is just as well, because the risk of losing all is much more than striking it rich.

The real fatal flaws in Lichello's AIM is that it provides no help in choosing stocks, nor does it give guidance to when to make the initial buy, and at what price. Neither does it reduce one's risk in losing the whole account in a "calamity stock".

The "original sin" of Lichello's AIM is its implicit acceptance of the initial investment share price as the fair or referance price of the stock. And a deviation from it "up or down" is to be compensated for by buying or selling. A proper method would strive to discover what the equilibrium price is (from its history), and only then would strive to counter an up move by selling, and a down move by buying.

Possibly I am being unfair to Mr. Lichello and AIM through ignorance. If so I apologize, and am open to being corrected.

Regards,
Sarmad
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