timhyma - We are in a real jam as far as fertilizer usage. Organic fertilizer is a tiny sliver of the total nutrient requirement for commercial ag. There are now 6,500,000,000 people on the planet and we have the lowest per capita grain inventories in 60 years. I see projections of the future population increase and really scratch my head as to how we are going to have the water, acres, yields, fertilizer, chemicals, etc. to increase overall grain production in a sustainable way. I hear technology and genetics will be the answer but a 300 bushel corn crop needs exactly 33% more water and nutrients than a 200 bushel yield.
The rant you don't want me started on is bio fuels. Burning our food so many people can drive 15mpg SUV's is going to inflict MAX PAIN on world food stocks/prices. It takes 4 barrels of oil to produce 5 barrels of ethanol. The third world is at the brink today and you aint seen nothin' yet as far as food price inflation.
Sorry I don't have a better outlook!
Kipp