AprOE Stuff?
Not Good for Shorts as we Closed above the R4, 45.24, for the second straight day, uptrend confirmed!? And with 43.66 holding on the Q’s and 1315 holding on the S&P500 I’d say we got ourselves a genuine Break-Out that has 51.85 and 1485 written All over it, WooHoo!?
We’ve taken Most ALL our Open options to ZERO value to get a REAL visual on our Net Liquidation value and we’ve NOT done too good this OE period and unless the 4cast happens we’re likely to post our first Loss this year!?
That said, we’ll have losing periods and that’s a given, but don’t count us out yet since we have a serious gain potential above 46.00?
I’m sure the Shorts will feel all warm and fuzzy if we do NOT take out the recent high of 46.41 but I think the Close will cause many to realize they MUST cover especially if we close above 46.41? This portends a visit to 47.96 early next week, or Not, LOL!?
FYI – anyone keeping track should know the 4cast close is a weekly gain of 5.0%, WooHoo!?
Btw ALL, there are MANY Prognosticators and EVERYone has an opinion, good for them! But we be here to make YOU Money and could care less about being Right or Wrong, as a matter of fact, we be wrong plenty of times but being able to ascertain said "Wrong-ness" is our specialty, and being able to hedge said probable "Wrong" outcome is in our Charter! Therefore we go forward every day posting our trades in Real time, many times in advance using price triggers, then add-em up each day, then tallying the Final Numbers to confess for ALL to see the Good , da-Bad, and da-Ugly!
OE Pivot, 43.09, close on 20Mar
High, 46.41, up 7.7% (hew high, 07Apr)
Low, 43.28, up 0.4% (Wow, the low of the OE period is above the Pivot, Whatda!)
Close, 45.27, up 5.1% (closed just above the R4, 45.24, portends Higher prices)
Spread, 3.13
PM, 7.7%
We start today with the following Open OE Port positions:
Short positions (expecting the Q’s to go Down), controlling 144k shares
Apr41 puts at 0.33 (160), bought long
Apr44 puts at 0.49 (640), bought long
Apr45 puts at 0.40 (160), bought long
Apr46 puts at 1.63 (320), bought long
Apr41 calls at 2.92 (160), sold short
Apr43 calls at 1.90 (160), sold short
Long positions (expecting the Q’s to go Up), controlling 160k shares
Apr44 calls at 1.71 (480), bought long
Apr46 calls at 0.62 (320), bought long
Apr47 calls at 0.36 (320), bought long
Apr47 puts at 1.62 (480), sold short
This gives us a Net Long da-Q's bias going into today and we'll use said Bias to play intraday Short plays to protect our Core positions and to post gains in an effort to minimize our pending losses on Open Positions.
These intraday plays are strategic in nature and will help us post profits that will off-set our losses incurred during this OE period as we HOLD Core positions indefinitely (see below side notes, Pending Gains/Loses)!
DCB (Dead Cat Bounce or NOT)
If we can stay above the OE Pivot, 43.09, on a Close-ing basis then the DCB has arrived and an important ST Bottom has successful been posted?
We posted Good gains yesterday as we traded in and/or out of puts and/or calls intraday and unloaded core positions to post some daily profits. Hence our AprOE profits increased by $4.48 to $132.56 as we started the day with $128.08 in profits!
These posted profits are impressive but don’t forget we have many wounded soldiers still on the battlefield (pawns, bishops, and Knights) bleeding RED numbers everywhere, especially as we get closer to the OE and the delta shrinks up into a wie, sorry Michelle, small amount, see “Pending Gains/Losses” below!
Those gains are actually quite good since most of our gains usually come a couple weeks into the OE period. Mostly just positioning our pawns, bishops, and knights during the first couple weeks so it’s a bonus to post modest profits already!
Btw…if you don’t play Chess then I suggest you STOP trading immediately and go learn da-Game, da-Chess game dat is! But don’t stop dare, stay away until you can actually BEAT someone at Chess. Otherwise, as most players who read to learn vs. actual experience, you’ll have learned just enough to lose your SorryAsskie life Savings, Get-it, Got-it, GOOD!
Side note (Pending Gains/-Losses):
These gains/losses will post when positions are removed and/or expire!
Pending -Loss(s)
Apr41 puts (160) at 0.33 – 0.00 (close) = 0.33 x 16 = $ - 5.28
Apr44 puts (640) at 0.49 – 0.00 (close) = 0.49 x 64 = $ - 31.36
Apr45 puts (160) at 0.40 – 0.00 (close) = 0.40 x 16 = $ - 6.40
Apr46 puts (320) at 1.63 – 0.00 (close) = 1.63 x 32 = $ - 52.16
Apr41 calls (160) at 2.92 – 4.82 (close) = 1.90 x 16 = $ - 30.40
Apr43 calls (160) at 1.90 – 2.82 (close) = 0.92 x 16 = $ - 14.72
Apr46 calls (320) at 0.62 – 0.16 (close) = 0.46 x 32 = $ - 14.72
Apr47 calls (320) at 0.36 – 0.00 (close) = 0.36 x 32 = $ - 11.52
Pending Gain(s)
Apr44 calls (480) at 1.71 – 1.79 (close) = 0.08 x 48 = $ 3.84
Apr47 puts (480) at 1.62 – 1.21 (close) = 0.41 x 48 = $ 19.68
Net gain/-loss pending for above open positions at the close = $ -143.04
This pending gain/-loss(s) is dependent on our ability to navigate this OE period with the utmost precision in regard to da-Boyz! Not to worry, we suspect da-OEPM factor will shed some light on da-Boyz and their Footprints of meaning (True intentions), LOL!?
Gain/-Loss History:
JanOE, $10.40 (up 20.2%, $10.40 into 51.85 = 20.2%)
FebOE, $18.28 (up 40.3%, $18.28 into 45.35 = 40.3%) ($36.50 in gains less $18.22 in losses)
MarOE, $45.95 (up 105%, $45.95 into 43.82 = 105%) ($92.43 in gains less $46.48 in losses)
AprOE, $ -10.48 ($132.56 in gains less $-143.04 in Open position losses)
For your viewing pleasure da-OEPM 4cast-r says.....?
Date Open High Low Close
11-Apr 45.02 45.10 44.12 44.28
14-Apr 44.21 44.48 43.95 44.08
15-Apr 44.24 44.35 43.68 44.14
16-Apr 44.65 45.48 44.65 45.37
17-Apr 45.42 45.47 44.98 45.27
4cast
18-Apr 45.79 46.64 45.79 46.53
And in da-Spirit of da-Boyz club and their House rules, we remain committed to being BOTH Long and Short at the same time so as to be READY and ABLE to meet-em at whichever lines they decide suits their fancy and at a time and/or day of their choosing (Ohhhhh BOYYYYYZ, come, and, GET US, LOL)!?
In summary, YOU GO BOYZ and do your thing, but remember this, we got your Back, Front, and any other side you choose to expose as you paint dem dare pictures, I guess Boyz will be Boyz now won’t They, LOL!?
Good trades ALL,
nm
BONUS OE STUFF, Remember – the CLOSING price tells ALL in regard the OEPM factor!
R8, 47.40, 10%
R7, 46.86, 8.75%, Final OE High Target
R6, 46.32, 7.5%, Expect to tag wk3?, Wowza – tagged 04Apr, WooHoo!
R5, 45.78, 6.25%, Expect to tag wk3, Bingo – EARLY, tagged 02Apr?
R4, 45.24, 5%, Expect to tag wk2, Bingo, tagged 01Apr?
R3, 44.71, 3.75%, Expect to tag wk2? Whatda, da-Boyz tagged 24Mar, Serious Upward MoJo here People!
R2, 44.17, 2.5%, Expect to tag 25Mar? Wowza, already tagged 24Mar, WooHoo!
R1, 43.63, 1.25%, Expect to tag 24Mar? Boom – dare it is, tagged 24Mar!
Pivot, 43.09, 0.0%
S1, 42.55, -1.25%, Expected to be the Low of the OE Period?
S2, 42.01, -2.5%
S3, 41.47, -3.75%
S4, 40.94, -5%
S5, 40.40, -6.25%
S6, 39.86, -7.5%
S7, 39.32, -8.75%
S8, 38.78, -10%
Most importantly, ARE you having FUN YET, I know I am!
FYI - we post EVERY trade in real time and in many cases post pre-trade sell and buy orders with trigger prices in anticipation of our 4cast! So ENJOY da-Show as we rat out da-Boyz club and have a little FUN while we're at it (I hope da-Boyz don't read dis-post otherwise they'll be GUN-ing for us - AGAIN, LOL!
