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Butler: Real Regulatory Reform

By: Theodore Butler and Carl Loeb

Posted 1 April, 2008 | Digg This Article | Discuss This Article - Comments: 4

There is a lot to cover, so I apologise in advance for the length of this piece. While I have been thinking about Commodity Index Funds a lot lately, and discussing them with close associates for months, I hadn’t really planned on writing about them at this time. But events have dictated otherwise, particularly the attention given to the impact of index funds on commodity prices. Just this weekend Barrons carried an important cover story. The article basically highlighted just how large the size of the index funds’ positions had grown and what the price impact was likely to be (very negative) if these positions were sold. Regular readers may remember I have written about the role of the index funds in the past.

First, some recent updates on silver. The most recent Commitment of Traders Report (COT) indicated expected significant selling by the tech funds (not to be confused with the index funds) and buying by the commercials in both gold and silver, although not to the extent I had predicted. The total commercial net short position in silver was reduced by 12,000 contracts, or 60 million ounces, versus an expectation by me of 20,000 contracts. In COMEX gold, the dealers reduced their net short position by 33,000 contracts (3.3 million ounces) against my guess of 75,000 contracts. While my guesses were wide of the mark, the reduction in the respective commercial short positions in silver and gold was still the largest in months.

Long Read cont:

http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1207068209.php