The Law of unintended Consequences as applied to Nokia
Reflecting back on the events of the last week, and having long ago ditched my rose colored glasses and connect-the-dots handbook, here's what I see...
As the facts dictate, and most of us believe, Samsung should be the first to the table as they can trade away some of the 2G money for signing first for 3G. Nokia knows this too, and has repeatedly reassured Samy that the two of them are in this together. As a sign of this blood oath, Nokia moved for consolidation and thereby embraced their own day of reckoning a few months earlier.
Fast forward a few pages in the calender and Samsung, losing a few hands of legal poker with IDCC (NY affirmation, etc.), looks like they may bolt from the barn. Then Nokia brings the action for arbitration, which really spooks Samsung. But Nokia calms Samsung, telling them it's a long shot at best (which it was) and just part of the scorched earth policy (ditto). Samsung, reassured by Nokia, stays closely tethered.
But Nokia, believing this New York arbitration motion is a non-starter (which it should have been) starts talks with IDCC on the sly. Why? Because they believe they will lose the motion; because they want to be the first to cut the best deal for themselves and because if Samsung goes first, Samy will trade 2G dollars and sign a healthy 3G rate (without the volume discount that benefitted Nokia and screwed Samy on 2G). Under FRAND, this fat Samy 3G license would be the worst result for Nokia.
So Nokia, treacherous bastards that they are, find themselves Thursday in the unexpected position of having won their motion - and Samy freaks. Nokia doesn't want Samy beating them to the punchbowl, so they assure and reassure and reassure Samy again that, 'all will be well'. 'We're here for you and with you.'
IDCC goes to Samy, 'Brother, you're screwed. Nokia's left you high and dry. Let's make a deal.' Samy says no, 'Nokia would never leave us to fend for ourselves.' And all the while Nokia is at the table, wheelin' and dealin'.
Which brings us to Monday morning. IDCC decides to rat out Nokia to Samsung with the 8k. Big Bill knows Nokia can't be trusted to finalize a deal unless Samy is racing them to the finish line. But Samy, up until that point, believed Nokia and would not deal.
So Bill is clear in his message of the 8K, 'substantial progress' and resolution of 'all disputes'. If this was really directed at Shareholders he would have simply said, 'we are in discussions' or said nothing, which is what he usually says in 8Ks - nothing about ongoing negotiations. But he wanted the message loud and clear to Samy, 'Nokia is in the end game and you are about to get screwed'. So step up Samy and make your deal.
Samy must have shit their pants and gotten on the phone to Nokia - deny this! So Nokia trots out their boy, but he can't misrepresent the truth (they have had talks with IDCC and they are close) because that is actionable, so instead, he responds with a comment about his state of mind ('less optimistic') which is not actionable. In affect, a non-denial, denial. Will Samy risk it all for this lukewarm, shrug of the shoulders?
There you have it, my theory. Nokia shocked themselves and won last week, which spooked Samy, who they reassured, until IDCC outed them, and now its divide and conquer.
