I'd like to get the software to I can verify my backtesting without huge Excel sheets. (Know what mean?)
Yes,
Whether with the down-to-the-nitty-gritty with Excel, or with the few simple clicks of the mouse and darn-near instant gratification, one must always remember that you're looking at the road already traveled, not the road to come. Back-testing can be a useful tool, but it is not the Holy Grail. Tom recently mentioned one stock where it was doing a fairly rhythmic cycling - then largely flatlined for a long time. And it's a very easy thing to want to 'adjust' the parameters to tune them to give you the most favorable result. But it means nothing. A million might-have-beens can never answer one what will be.
In my opinion, the best one can do is to take backtesting results with one of those big grains of salt - the kind you can sit on an LED platform and watch it change colors - the different colors representing the different tunings to the backtest run. Some will glow bright green as you've matched the parameters to the history in the most optimal way, whilst others will glow crimson red, showing you what not to do!
If you follow a practice of diversification, then follow the signals at the appropriate times, rebalancing now and again, you'll reduce the worry factor and the market itself will carry you to the destination. Lichello presciently observed that the markets will go up, go down or hang around a given range. AIM gives you the tool to adjust to any road condition up ahead, and all of them to come.
Best,
AIMster
