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Re: New Wave post# 161072

Monday, 03/17/2008 7:56:50 PM

Monday, March 17, 2008 7:56:50 PM

Post# of 249161
New Wave

I agree with you that this crisis runs far greater than the press has covered. The information has been out there, but you had to be on the lookout for it. I read earlier this year that the debt rations on all this bad paper in the CDO's and other types of paper is leverages at the minimum of something on the order of 25 to 1. What I have been waiting to see is coming up shortly and that is the effect that the vast number of ARM resetting starting the 1st quarter of this year- which totals more than reset in all of last year and is just as bad in Q2 before trailing off. There are also cracks showing in the liar loans which weren't discussed when the lousy numbers were projected earlier this year. The fed has already added over a trillion in cash to the money stream since the 1st of the year and I don't think that is going to slow up as the credit markets continue to seize up.

These factors added together will make it very difficult for the next funding that wave will need, especially if there is no substantial increase in revenue generation. It was disconcerning to see that only 2 customers break the 10% revenue number in the latest 10K. Without an apparent increase in revenues the next funding may look akin to a mafia shakedown.

Dave

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