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Re: MWM post# 10531

Sunday, 03/16/2008 3:56:32 PM

Sunday, March 16, 2008 3:56:32 PM

Post# of 15759
Exiting BK is only one piece of the puzzle to seeing any meaningful rise in share price. The other piece is getting CHAG off of the gray's and uplisted onto OTC. Only when CHAG is uplisted and more freely and openly traded will the market be able to realize the increasing value of CHAG and its assets. The exception to this is of course a full buyout by another group of investors or company. A buyout, if one would to occur, would obviously be at price closer to the actual economic value of the assets (producing oil&gas reserves) and not dependant on being uplisted. It's my specualtion that CHAG will exit BK between April and August of this year. It depends on CHAG securing alternate financing to free themselves of CapWest grip. I don't expect CHAG to even consider uplisting until they have exited BK. SO uplisting probably won't occur until August or Sept of this year at the earliest.
IF CHAG can continue with restoring wells and increase thier oil & gas production, I foresee CHAG capable of producing $2mill to $3mil in qtr revenue with oil at $100/bbl. At $8mill in annual rev. CHAG could even start paying a dividend (not uncommon for a oil co. & would benefit MAX) and then CHAG could be valued at not only a P/E but at a yield.
What that price would be? Pure speculation on my part but when CHAG exits BK AND uplist, I think $0.30 to $0.50 is reasonable followed by a march up to $2 range (P/E of 15) as CHAG increases production & annual revs toward $8mil to $10mill (earnings in excess of $5mil) assuming the price of oil stays at or above $100/bbl. and no dilution.
The ultimate destiny of CHAG, in my opinion, is hitched to the desire and future of its largest shareholder, Max. IF MAX wants to sell CHAG to Exxon for example, CHAG will be sold. If Max wants to leverage CHAG's revenue or do a secondary for expansion, CHAG will expand. I think with about 22mil shares Max would be happy to sell for $3 share. However, Max may have bigger ambition and look to expand CHAG into a formidable oil & gas company like Apache ($40 billion market cap)

Just my 2 cents worth. Keep in mind I am a small retail investor and this is all speculationn my part. Invest at your own risk. I am long on CHAG.