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ChinaOnline Article: Lehman Predictions
http://www.chinaonline.com/topstories/cs-protected/020213/1/C02021304.asp


Lehman Brothers predicts China economy to rank world's 2nd in 2030

(13 February 2002) China’s economy will grow at an annual average of 6 percent in the next two decades, becoming the second largest after the United States in 2030, predicts a recent report by investment bank Lehman Brothers Inc.

It currently ranks sixth in the world. In 2001 China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.4 percent.

The report says that foreign investors show the most interest in trading stocks issued by the banking, oil and natural gas, power, telecommunications and media sectors and large state-owned enterprises, Guoji Jinrong Bao (International Finance News) reported Tuesday.

Although foreign banks are allowed to conduct yuan business, many restrictions are still effective, the report notes.

Oil and gas, a priority industry in China, faces two challenges, says the report. The industry needs huge funding to expand exports and adjustment of its operations to improve efficiency.

In its analysis of China’s power industry, the report notes that a reform scheme publicized earlier will render great help to an industry restructuring and its further development.

The report adds that China’s telecom industry has gained huge momentum and has tremendous potentials.

Although foreign investors may encounter many restrictions in their involvement in China’s publishing and broadcasting sectors, such involvement, according to the report, will promote advertising substantially.

The report is based on a 10-month investigation and research by Lehman Brothers in China.