A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board

[DonCarlson]

Analysis of VGENX and ZZs

Hi Tom,

I noticed in one of your posts that you were looking at ZZs and VGENX.

Here's some of my observations:

1. VGENX had 14 10% ZZs (1-1-97 thru 12-31-01)

2. In the previous 5-yr spreadsheet analysis of 35 stocks/funds, that I had sent to you, there were a couple funds close to VGENX:
ZigZag
SYMBOL 5yr 80/20/5 67/33/5 B&H
TWCUX 13 130,608 125,645 126,332
CEI 15 126,422 122,743 103,724


3. VGENX analysis:
Ristance % 50/50/5 67/33/5 80/20/5 100/0/5
1 134,537 139,874 137,188 135,963
2 131,161 139,309 136,843 134,621
3 129,420 137,735 133,853 134,191
4 128,195 137,795 137,518 133,668
5 127,383 136,697 135,782 134,173
6 126,856 136,004 135,111 133,725
7 126,366 135,330 134,575 135,043
8 125,949 134,772 138,547 134,783
9 125,404 134,050 137,654 134,226
10 124,871 133,345 136,938 134,803
11 122,677 130,392 136,286 132,706
12 122,363 129,969 135,790 132,802


4. Guess What:
a. When looking at the original 'limited' study, when a fund has 14 zz's in 5 years, a person could expect that a $100k investment would grow to $123-$131k in 5 years.

b. Guess what, VGENX grew $125-$137k in 5 years.

5. A quick review of the table in 3., indicates that the optimum setting for VGENX is 80/20/5 with 8% Ristance, that would have produced $138,547.


I would be interested in how you approached the ZZ analysis of VGENX.

Don Carlson