fwiw I'm still around too, just don't feel like I have a whole lot to say constructively right now.
pretty much a bit afraid to say anything either way...
aw what the heck...
Have to admit, not as wildly optimistic as I was a while ago. Probably a lot of us are still smarting from the drop after the last ruling. The drop to .15 was unwarranted but it still shakes one up a bit. That level .12-.15 probably reflects a worse case scenerio of liquidation value based on cheaper o&g prices of the past.
IMO, based on the current high & rising o&g prices of the present, I still think the present pps approximates liquidation value based on current (rising) market. .30 -.35 pps (or ppu) range.
Still plan on holding my few thousand unit core position. I'm fighting a powerful hankering to sell that I usually get right before a stock takes off so that feeling could mean that we are actually about to experiance something positive.
On the surface, things don't look all that good to me.
We're stuck with a trustee that expressed an opinion that the big lawsuit doesn't have merit, which is obviously due to conflict of interest in favor of their being financially beholden albiet indirectly, to pxd and being named a defendant. otoh hand they still express a desire to step down as trustee (though I imagine a little "invisible" gesturing here - rubbing their fingers together under the table = if we can somehow make it "worth their while" ...).
The deal that would have compelled them to step down in exchange for getting off the hook while not, in effect, incurring financial liability for doing so, was not, as previously expected, endorsed by the court since it invoked a "Mary Carter" scenerio. This was initially seen by (presumably "new") investors as a negative and resulted in the temporary oversold tankage. Actually, avoiding Mary Carter saved the main suit from being derailed on that basis so we have recovered back to a present more-or-less neutral level.
One really simple solution would be proxy vote by unitholders to change the rules to allow a new trustee with less than $100m net worth. When the original rules were drafted it was probably thought that this high-brow requirement would insure the trust would not fall into the hands of flim-flam artists or an entity that would try to manipulate the millions under their control, since, the trustee being worth over a hundred million, such "small change" would be beneath them. This "protection" seems to have come back to bite unitholders in the @ss now since it apparently has been darn near impossible to find a new trustee that qualifies.
The interventors and known unit holders apparent only number about 40%, not enough for a 50% quorum to change the rules.
Are they still searching, looking? If all those units got truly lost, how can they be voted? Can't they be declared non-voting at this point or something, reducing the true "active float" such that a quorum can be delared? Not void them completely, they could turn back uo someday in somebody's closet. We don't want anybody to lose their inheritance, or temporarily misplaced investment assets, whatever the case with the missing certificates, but in the meantime, since they can't be voted, they shouldn't count, imo.
One of our main mosh ihub guys started implementing an idea for ihubbers to "register" their shares with him to try to supplement that number but, I don't know, we need to make up 7 million units.
I don't think we are going to scrape anything near that up, right? Like I mentioned, I have a few thou, probably will hold but I don't really want to totally declare and commit, plus don't want to sign up for full ihub service at this time.
Actually there are 100,000 ihub users, if each one bought 70 shares (about $25) we'd be there, but I suspect proportionally fewer are at this mosh board.
btw I (we of not full account status) can receive priv emails. just not send them -- so put me on the mailing list anyway if possible...
Although I'm feeling pretty neutral at this point pxd did throw off $30m-$70m pretty easily on the last (Kansas) lawsuit, so that's what I'm currently figuring as a more possible upside right now. Not so sure if things are actually going to make it to trial, and even if it does pxd probably has "plausible deniability" on many of the points. Still it seems like _something_ could be made to stick. That's still .50 to $1 / unit.
