Analysts' Earnings Forecasts
Forecasts are very negative.
Recent analyst earnings forecasts for ZRAN have decreased which indicates a decline in expected
earnings growth. Relative to changes in earnings forecasts for other companies ZRAN compares
negatively. However, the company has reported earnings that were higher than those predicted in
earlier estimates which may be a positive for future earnings growth.
Changes in analysts' estimates and actual reported earnings compared to forecasted estimates provide
additional insight into earnings momentum. These measures combine with Ford's earnings
momentum to produce better results than each independently.
Valuation Analysis
Very undervalued according to earnings yield.
ZRAN's operating earnings yield of 9.3% ranks above 88% of the other companies in the Ford universe
of stocks, indicating that it is very undervalued.
Ford measures the relative valuation of each company against all other companies in our research
universe. Operating earnings yield, an earnings-to-price ratio based on the last 3 quarters of operating
earnings and the current quarter's estimate, has proven to be the most reliable relative valuation
measure. A stock may stay undervalued or overvalued for a long period of time. For this reason it is
important to combine this factor with short term catalysts such as earnings momentum or price
momentum that may unlock potential valuation adjustments.
Price Momentum Analysis
ZRAN's stock price is down 18.3% in the last 12 months, down 46% in the past quarter and down 31.6%
in the past month. This historical performance should lead to above average price performance in the
next one to three months.
Another important catalyst, especially in regard to intermediate and short term performance, is the
historical price action of the company. Long term historical performance is a good indicator of future
price performance, but much more importantly, large price movements over the intermediate and short
term tend to reverse themselves. Ford's price momentum measure integrates historical long and short
term price changes creating ratings that are highest for stocks with strong twelve month price
performance that have a price consolidation in the past quarter and especially the past month.
Quality Rating
An average quality rating.
ZRAN is considered average quality based on its mid cap size, low financial leverage and average
earnings volatility. Average quality companies on average exhibit an average degree of price volatility.
While not part of the overall recommendation, Ford's quality rating has been a good indicator of the
potential price volatility of a company. Ford measures quality based on company size, financial leverage
and the volatility of earnings. Quality may not have a direct relationship to performance, but it does
have a close relationship to the dispersion of returns among individual stocks. Attractive, high quality
companies can have less downside volatility in weak markets and often produce strong returns during
complete market cycles.
Regards,
frenchee
#board-4258 TSP Trend Timing: EFA (I), TLT (F), SPY (C), and VXF (S)
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