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Saturday, February 09, 2008 11:41:23 AM
Here are the facts, please try to understand them:
Carnes loaned RVGD money. In return he received promissory notes on loanshark types of terms.
Carnes has requested conversion of one of those notes. The company was legally bound to convert the note.
Carnes probably sold all of those shares to a market maker who is now distributing those shares into the market. It will end at some point in time, hopefully soon.
In addition, the company has liquidated some shares for operating capital and probably also sold them to a market maker who either is or was distributing them into the market. If it's not over, it will end at some point in time, hopefully soon.
There will be future dilution as the other promissory note and preferred shares are converted by Carnes. This may be as soon as July.
The company will be customizing Ridgelines as early as this coming week. This should provide a revenue stream.
The company has a contract with some entity for $80 mil over the next four years. They project earnings along the lines of .004/share/year from that contract alone. This earnings estimate was based upon their calculation using a FULLY DILUTED share structure of 977 million. Let me rephrase that;
After taking into account all of the possible current and future share conversions, the company expects to earn .004/share. This earnings estimate does not even include the Ridgelines which they'll have within days. Nor does it include revenue from two other contracts they are currently negotiating. So earnings may even be higher.
Chad Sykes, who is the IR rep for RVGD (he has my sympathy), has been telling all shareholders exactly what is happening with regard to the share structure and even going so far as to tell everyone what is going to happen in the future. That's unheard of in any market, but he has promised transparency and is delivering it in spades. Never before has anyone here been so well informed about a pink sheet penny stock or any other stock for that matter. We can buy, sell, hold, fold, and trade with clarity.
There is only one unknown with RVGD's share structure. That is, when will this distribution end. You don't know, I don't know and no one other than the market makers know. You could call them and ask, but good luck with that. When it does end, RVGD will trade without a share distribution at least for a while. I suspect it will trade up to a rational valuation based upon current contracts and future expectations.
I expect Chad Sykes to continue to release news about the company for two reasons. One is to inform shareholders about the status of the company. The second reason is to encourage buying for the purpose of enabling the distribution which is currently underway. Don't make that out to be a bad thing. It helps prop up the price somewhat and helps end the distribution sooner.
All of those here who understand that have been making personal, informed decisions about how to handle it. It's a refreshing change from the norm in penny land.
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