cslewis
I tend to agree with Weby's comments as well as a number of others. The lack of tangible information concerning deployment and revenue as well as the evidence we've been able to gather implies to me that the path has been very gradual so far but that the industry is picking up speed and momentuum. I can easily imagine many more announcements and a very material increase in TPM deployments towards the end of the year and a huge increase in 05. Despite what Wave thinks, when the 1.2 chip becomes available, I think the floodgates will open.
Having said that, I am unable to confidently predict how that will turn into revenue for Wave. I know it will generate revenue but I can't predict how much - 100's of thousands, millions, 10's of millions ??? And so far SKS has not provided that type of guidance with much credibiltiy for me.
Unfortunately financing will become critical before I perceive the revenue will start flowing. Although I had anticipated a shortfall and the need for more in Q3, the ongoing shortfall seems to be larger and longer than I anticipated. If SKS had deliberately under promised on purpose during the call, he has succeeded. I wonder if we will repeat last year sucky deal again, or find a strategic investor or have to sell the company or a good part of it to someone.
Everything I've learned post conference call from wave reinforces what I inferred from the call. Lots of progress but Wave is essentially a prisoner to the rate of deployment and the good graces of their partners. I have no reason to believe anything has gone wrong at all - just that it will happen when it will happen and there is little wave can do about it except be there and be prepared. At any moment, there could be significant movement but there is little to predict when.
I also checked about the gov't efforts and Europe. We're still there plugging away with our partners but nothing new that can be reported.We keep making progress but there is no stable finish for that comment to mean anything to me.
Finally i'm told the auditors literally called at the end of the conference call to say they changed their mind on how the SSP stock gain should be treated. Seems like the auditor and Finney need to go back to school. I need to check if passing through the gain in operating income ever makes sense for a company who is not in the business of trading securities. That is, was it a change in interpretation or just plain not knowing the rules under OCI.
If you are not planning on selling now, a hiatus might be good for your health. a light could turn on at any moment or not. You also won't have to read Spin anymore.
