ajtj99's Market Pulse

[ajtj99]

hiker, to arrive at those dates I used a combination of historic reversions to the mean and a cycle fractal.

I think the easiest way to figure fair housing prices in an area is to take the 1996 base price and add the annual increase in the CPI. This will work in most areas of the country, although it probably will not in places that have seen little or no growth since 1999 (western New York, western Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, southern Lousiana, Indiana, and parts of Wisconsin.

If you're moving into a bubble area, the 1996 plus CPI method works very well. 2012 ought to be a decent buying op, although financing costs may actually be lower in 2010, making a financed purchase possibly less expensive in 2010.

You may also note 2010 is the peak year for option ARM re-sets, so it ought to be carnage out there the year 2010. That's the last year of the foreclosure surge, and it should get us some excessively low priced properties.