Keys to the crown: Top Ohio State-LSU betting stats
By TIM ROBERTS - Writer January 2, 2008 5 comments
It’s days away, but college football’s title game has already garnered a lot of betting action.
Here are some numbers to consider before the Ohio State Buckeyes meet the LSU Tigers on Monday night:
.333 – LSU posted only a .333 payday winning percentage when favored by less than two touchdowns this year, going 2-4-1 against the spread (ATS) in such a role.
The Tigers smoked Virginia Tech in Week 2 as an 11-point home favorite before dropping paydays in all three October games as an 8- to 10 ½-point favorite in each.
Bettors who nabbed LSU -6 ½ when it visited Alabama barely squeaked out an ATS win before the Bayou Bengals finished their season with unconvincing performances against Arkansas and Tennessee.
.667 – Ohio State has been a bettor’s best friend for years, posting a .667 payday winning percentage since 2004. Buckeyes backers have profited in each of the last four seasons as OSU went 32-16 ATS during that run.
Ohio State was 7-4 ATS this season, a record that could have easily been 9-2 ATS if OSU hadn’t taken its foot off the gas against both Minnesota and Michigan State. (Guess who was on the Buckeyes on both games?)
1 – Once. That’s how many times the Buckeyes had been underdogs over the last three seasons before Monday’s game.
Ohio State was as a 3-point underdog at Texas in Week 2 of the 2006 campaign. Head coach Jim Tressel’s boys reiterated their No. 1 status with a 24-7 win and oddsmakers had favored them ever since … ‘til now.
4 – Continuing with reasons why bettors love OSU, the Buckeyes have won (and covered the spread) in four of their last five bowl games.
The school’s sole postseason setback during that run came in last year’s title game against Florida. Prior to that loss, however, Ohio State was on a 4-0 ATS run in bowl games that included a trio of straight-up (SU) wins as an underdog.
7 – All seven of the Tigers’ final regular season games played over the total, leading to an overall 9-4 over-under (O/U) record for LSU. The trend came to a stop when Tennessee and the Tigers played a low-scoring affair in Atlanta for the conference crown.
LSU’s boosted offensive production was highly publicized (the Tigers scored 40.4 points per contest during the seven-game over streak). The fact that the Tigers conceded 33.2 points per game to their six SEC opponents during that run was not. Even subtracting points scored by opponents in overtime, LSU let every SEC opponent down the stretch score at least 24 points in regulation time.
16 – The Fighting Tigers have met 20 non-conference schools over the last five seasons and covered the spread against 16 of them. That’s an awesome ATS winning percentage of .800, slightly above LSU’s .750 ATS success rate against non-SEC foes this year.
LSU beat Virginia Tech by 41 points in its most-watched non-conference game of 2007. The other three came against much smaller schools and the Tigers were favored by at least 35 points in each of those games.
Their only failure to cover the spread in a non-conference game occurred in the Louisiana Superdome, where Monday’s title game takes place. LSU was a 40 ½-point favorite over Tulane in Week 5; the otherwise convincing 34-9 final score wasn’t enough to satisfy Bengals backers.
57.6 – Speaking of bettors, 57.6 percent of Wagerline.com users liked LSU minus the points as of Wednesday afternoon. That percentage reflects the tastes of more than 3,800 bettors who wagered on spreads between 3 ½ and 5 points.
That majority is slightly higher than the 56.5 percent of Wagerline.com users who preferred the over for Monday night’s title game.
Maybe you don’t like to follow the pack, maybe you do. As for me, I’ll paraphrase Anchorman womanizer Brian Fantana in saying “I’ve studied Wagerline.com, you know – 50 percent of the time, it works every time.”
91 – Ohio State led the nation in total defense, allowing opponents only 225.3 yards of total offense per game. Nowhere was the Buckeyes’ defensive dominance more visible than at the Big House for the season finale against Michigan. OSU allowed the Wolverines to compile only 91 total yards.
Maybe Michigan’s offensive stars weren’t quite at full health. Maybe the ugly weather clamped down on the scoring. Make any excuse you want, I defy anyone to say that 91-yard total isn’t impressive.
180.5 – Lest bettors think OSU is the only team capable of strong defensive performances, LSU topped the country in total defense against non-conference opponents. The Tigers allowed them only 180.5 yards per game.
Holding Middle Tennessee State to 90 yards of total offense might draw yawns from some bettors. The fact that LSU limited Virginia Tech to 149 total yards and a sole touchdown is downright sassy.
