re: "If we see the price fall then we know the outcome will not be favorable to MOSH"
I have dome a visual surveys of charts vs. earning announcements last few earning seasons and conclude that you really can't tell anything from that.
A lot of traders don't like to hold through earnings regardless of expections as a matter of course will sell off.
Other stocks will run up to earning and then sell off even with good earnings. (recent example ldk)
One also needs to consider that hedge funds run the markets. They will as likely "run the stops" as try to make an early buy assuming they think they know something. Unless you know which ones are long or short and how much and which have an "axe to grind" against a particular company it's pretty hard to claim any kind of reliable correlation.
Volume spikes in a low range can be slightly better than worthless, imo.
With mosh, people drop the hot potatoe when they see the price sag, figure they can get back in before the big event -- who knows maybe they can...