I have not posted there for about a year. Too much happening - and to tell you the truth - its easier to pick up the phone now. The only reason I have posted here (yesterday and today) is that you were all not doing sufficient due diligence and going way off the deep end. However, going back in memory, let me try to explain the difference in tone. Am I any less optimistic - NO. (Plus, I had a long day at work, this week.) I still expect to receive something - how much - that is a tough question. Everyone is going to have to come to their own estimate.
"The trust has assets - 4 going wells in West Delta (WD61 & 62), plus a new one that was just put in thats producing. These wells will be coming back on line in the near future (give or take a couple of months) with the repaired collection system offshore LA. The Brazos (BA 7 & 39) leases (TX), has the Midway well that just started producing this month - see Woodside's press announcement, " - The BA7 well depleted and I think that lease may be returned. I have not read the last couple 10Qs in minute detail - been busy doing other items. WD62, if I remember correctly was returned. We thought that another well had been drilled that was a closed hole, still trying to determine that (so its been discounted). We were thrilled with Woodside's announcement, then but saw no follow thru on sustained production - no income showed up. Remember this is now about a year later, and WD has still not announced that they are back on line. Like I said earlier - Rumor has it.... and there is about a 4 month lag in the MMS production reporting.
"Production is coming back on line - 2005 pre hurricane produced nearly $3 million (almost 1.3 million added to the reserve fund) and that does not include a producing Midway well. So there is income potential there." If I remember correctly, we had been waiting for WD to come back on line for a LONG time (still waiting on the official announcement). The 1.3M that was added to the reserve fund (that is now 0), was if I remember correctly, and it took a lot of reading in the 10Q and 10K, a combination of both WD income and a one time payment of selling one of the platforms for scrap that came off one of the abandoned tracks. Also, we discovered when it was reported that Midway was producing, that the Midway income went to escrow, thus the Trust was receiving no income (and still receiving no income). The Trustee never told us a lot of this - we needed to figure it out ourselves.
Also, "So, even if the Trust goes to termination, there is value there. If termination comes, I have a very nice list, already prepared of various oil companies AND OTHER INTITIES that would more than likely be interested in bidding, just to make sure that no one walks away with a gift not going to happen! It has been estimated that the trust (going into termination) on an income basis is worth at least 25 cents a share" - First, I was calculating in the $2M reserve fund. That has now been spent on JPM management fees and JPM legal fees. I did not expect this to drag on this long - did not expect the reserve fund to 0. Then you have to estimate just what the ORR streams are worth on a discounted cash flow. Also, I think that PXD is just producing (Midway) just enough to keep the DOI from asking for the lease back, so I am thinking that it is not producing at full potential (what ever that may be). Remember the Managing General Partner is in full control of everything Oil and Gas. The 2M reserve fund went to 0 (remove 2 cents per share). Also, now we have JPM loaning 3M against the Trust's assets (remove another 3 cents). I actually have forgotten what the Trust (see the annual 10K for the estimate) of the discounted value of the properties, however I think I remember it to be about 7 to 9 cents/unit. This is based on SEC rules, so market value would be about 2x or 3x or so. Thus the remaining 20 cents. Remember what I was doing, was reverse engineering the accounting information from the 10Q and 10K. After the Midway announcement, the 10K was released, however we found that it did not include anything from Midway. Then the following year, the estimates were essentially the same. This with WD still shut in. We could not understand, how the valuation could remain the same with no WD production across both years, but with Midway "added in" the next year, so it was estimated in.
Remember - I have no magic source of extra non public information. Just reading, looking, comparing, - asking questions, etc. Also, going back through the MMS permits and well information along with the monthly production reports.
Also, Pioneer reported problems on the quality of gas, and that the collection platform was rejecting their gas. That would probably reduce the value somewhat - how much is unknown. Additionally, this was when the units were in the 9 to 12 cent range.
So after another year of MOSH, watching and reading the tea leaves, I am no less optimistic. That said, you do really have to admit that optimism was running rabid. You all picked up some basic information and then suddenly stopped. Then just traded the same information bits and pieces back and forth, with nothing new being added. There was a lot of additional info out there that was not being picked up.
... obviously - just my opinion and estimates.
