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Re: rancherho post# 5246

Tuesday, 12/18/2007 9:48:44 PM

Tuesday, December 18, 2007 9:48:44 PM

Post# of 12660
My comment wrt the powering of Vital 1 and to its Hazard Ratio of 2 assuming a 23 month control arm median survival and a 35 month experimental arm median survival was based on a response provided by iwfal on Ihub (other than using a 22.5 median survival for the control arm) since I make no claim to being a statistician.

My point was that they tout a 80% powering. For the number of events that you quoted for the interim (200) 80% powering does NOT correspond to a 22.5 mo median survival in placebo and 36 mo median survival in treated. No way, no how.

Therefore the mgt must be assuming something more along the lines of an HR=1.3-1.6 (a WAG). Something more in line with 9901 expected HR at an interim.

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