AI
Saturday, November 24, 2007 9:13:54 PM
FRACTAL formation of 2007 vs 1997 vs phi
This is NOT 1987 or 1929 even though some would be spell bounced by phi falling on 10/11/07 from Oct1987-Mar2000. Why not ugly phi spell in 2007?
2007 Fractal Formation Update: We have speculations on 2007 market actions based on fractal formations comparing to 1997, 1998, 1987 and 1929. I commented on ;2007 vs 1987" and "2007 combo fractal of 1997-1998. Markets did not show the 1998 price patterns due to the recent sellings since the 10/11/07 top. The selling from the top was heavy as we can see on the breadth charts showing multi-year low levels. The rally from 8/16/07 lasted less than 2 months retracing to the SPX 1550 +/- LT top with a false breakout of 25 points above the LT resistance.
Even with the two interest cuts, markets could not sustain the rally ending up selling as more sub-prime write off news sensationalizing media. Of course, the news is not good for many homeowners and bankers as well as for economy as consumers spending less affecting the corporate profit. However, Q3 earning reports from major companies were quite good but markets sold off on good earning news. The write off news would have occurred before the Q3 earning reports as markets were pricing in the bad news for the last couple of years as well can see that many stocks are trading at multi-year lows. Financial sector stocks were heavily sold off during the last several months. Now, considering market actions closing at major supports, extremely bad market breadth, and negative consumer/investors sentiment with oversold daily price actions, I think that many are still quite cautious as to fully investing to markets at this time even though we are in seasonally favorable months as investing during Nov-Mar brings best returns.
With the extremely negative news, very low consumers/investors sentiment, oversold market levels regardless major markets showing only 10% retracement from 10/11/07 top as many stocks trading near multi-year low, we would see a rally going into the end of year. This is an anticipation and would like to a confirmation.
While markets are trading at major supports, markets traded down from major LT resistance with widely watching "LT phi date from 1987" aligning at 10/11/07 top and "20yr anniversary" of 1987. As shown on the comparative chart of 1929, 1987, 1997 and 2007; we have, so far, 1997 price formation closing at major supports.
I have commented on the 1987 correction as quoted below. Markets rallied 205% rally after a breakout in Aug1982 before the 1987 34% correction. Considering comparative performances of the markets since Oct2002, rallying 100% after correcting 50% of 1425% of Aug 1982 - Mar 2000 rally, with the recent correction since 10/11/07 in addition to 7/19-8/16/07 correction; I think that it is likely that we will see a rallying going into EOY. We have many traders expecting markets will make a low during the mid Dec to rally. I also noted that 11/13 OE week was pivotal week and we have seen that markets were slightly trading low then remained in a trading range.
.......Why the 1987 34% correction? Among various reasons which we can come up with, it was the 205% rally going into the 34% correction. As shown on the SPX monthly chart, SPX rallied 205% during Aug1982~Aug1987 before the 34% correction in Oct 19-20, 1987. SPX consolidated during Jul1963 ~ Jul1980, then, it attempted to break out in Aug1980 which led to Aug1982 retest of the breakout from Dec1968 and Dec1976 tops. After the retest of the breakout in Aug1982, SPX rallied 205% which led to 1987 34% correction........
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=22365390
Fractal Formations: As shown below, the comparative chart of 1929-1987-1997-2007 price actions, we can see that the 2007 price performance is relatively similar as 1997 price actions with lower price performances in 2007 than any other three years.
In addition to the comments above that market rallied 200% before the 1987 34% correction, but also, we can see that market have shown higher beta within the year in 1987 and in 1929.
In 1997, the year ended with 22.7% gain while in 2007, DOW shows 4% gain as of 11/23/07 close.
Compared to 0.3% gain in 1987 and 20% loss in 1929 for the years. I noted that the gains prior to 1987 correction which was 200%, and the gains prior to 1929 was 380% since 1920, ending the year 1929 140% gain from 1920.
2007 vs 1997
As shown the 1997 and 2007 chart formations, the price actions, so far, show the similar patterns. I have noted that 2007 price actions show combo fractal of 1997 and 1998 because VIX has broken out to 1997, interest rate cuts and the price advance formation is similar in 2007 as in 1997 when market performed 100% except, in 1997, it took 32 months from 1995 to 1997 while, in 2007, it took 61 months from Oct2002 to Oct2007. Evidently, markets have shown higher beta in the past than now.
The conclusion is that markets have corrected thus far comparatively similar as prior years and we are seeing the "1997" price formations as of 11/23/07 close at the major supports. While we would see markets rallied at this juncture as we have seen during 1997 price formation at the major supports and during the seasonally favored months, markets are driven by news or using it to sell the market to multi-year low levels for individual stocks. For many stocks, markets are already heavily oversold while large cap stocks holding up markets; therefore, I am anticipating a bounce going into EOY. However, it is better to be prepared downside risk when the current supports are broken.
Show us the "1997" Fractal Formation!!!
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=24773149
This is NOT 1987 or 1929 even though some would be spell bounced by phi falling on 10/11/07 from Oct1987-Mar2000. Why not ugly phi spell in 2007?
2007 Fractal Formation Update: We have speculations on 2007 market actions based on fractal formations comparing to 1997, 1998, 1987 and 1929. I commented on ;2007 vs 1987" and "2007 combo fractal of 1997-1998. Markets did not show the 1998 price patterns due to the recent sellings since the 10/11/07 top. The selling from the top was heavy as we can see on the breadth charts showing multi-year low levels. The rally from 8/16/07 lasted less than 2 months retracing to the SPX 1550 +/- LT top with a false breakout of 25 points above the LT resistance.
Even with the two interest cuts, markets could not sustain the rally ending up selling as more sub-prime write off news sensationalizing media. Of course, the news is not good for many homeowners and bankers as well as for economy as consumers spending less affecting the corporate profit. However, Q3 earning reports from major companies were quite good but markets sold off on good earning news. The write off news would have occurred before the Q3 earning reports as markets were pricing in the bad news for the last couple of years as well can see that many stocks are trading at multi-year lows. Financial sector stocks were heavily sold off during the last several months. Now, considering market actions closing at major supports, extremely bad market breadth, and negative consumer/investors sentiment with oversold daily price actions, I think that many are still quite cautious as to fully investing to markets at this time even though we are in seasonally favorable months as investing during Nov-Mar brings best returns.
With the extremely negative news, very low consumers/investors sentiment, oversold market levels regardless major markets showing only 10% retracement from 10/11/07 top as many stocks trading near multi-year low, we would see a rally going into the end of year. This is an anticipation and would like to a confirmation.
While markets are trading at major supports, markets traded down from major LT resistance with widely watching "LT phi date from 1987" aligning at 10/11/07 top and "20yr anniversary" of 1987. As shown on the comparative chart of 1929, 1987, 1997 and 2007; we have, so far, 1997 price formation closing at major supports.
I have commented on the 1987 correction as quoted below. Markets rallied 205% rally after a breakout in Aug1982 before the 1987 34% correction. Considering comparative performances of the markets since Oct2002, rallying 100% after correcting 50% of 1425% of Aug 1982 - Mar 2000 rally, with the recent correction since 10/11/07 in addition to 7/19-8/16/07 correction; I think that it is likely that we will see a rallying going into EOY. We have many traders expecting markets will make a low during the mid Dec to rally. I also noted that 11/13 OE week was pivotal week and we have seen that markets were slightly trading low then remained in a trading range.
.......Why the 1987 34% correction? Among various reasons which we can come up with, it was the 205% rally going into the 34% correction. As shown on the SPX monthly chart, SPX rallied 205% during Aug1982~Aug1987 before the 34% correction in Oct 19-20, 1987. SPX consolidated during Jul1963 ~ Jul1980, then, it attempted to break out in Aug1980 which led to Aug1982 retest of the breakout from Dec1968 and Dec1976 tops. After the retest of the breakout in Aug1982, SPX rallied 205% which led to 1987 34% correction........
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=22365390
Fractal Formations: As shown below, the comparative chart of 1929-1987-1997-2007 price actions, we can see that the 2007 price performance is relatively similar as 1997 price actions with lower price performances in 2007 than any other three years.
In addition to the comments above that market rallied 200% before the 1987 34% correction, but also, we can see that market have shown higher beta within the year in 1987 and in 1929.
In 1997, the year ended with 22.7% gain while in 2007, DOW shows 4% gain as of 11/23/07 close.
Compared to 0.3% gain in 1987 and 20% loss in 1929 for the years. I noted that the gains prior to 1987 correction which was 200%, and the gains prior to 1929 was 380% since 1920, ending the year 1929 140% gain from 1920.
2007 vs 1997
As shown the 1997 and 2007 chart formations, the price actions, so far, show the similar patterns. I have noted that 2007 price actions show combo fractal of 1997 and 1998 because VIX has broken out to 1997, interest rate cuts and the price advance formation is similar in 2007 as in 1997 when market performed 100% except, in 1997, it took 32 months from 1995 to 1997 while, in 2007, it took 61 months from Oct2002 to Oct2007. Evidently, markets have shown higher beta in the past than now.
The conclusion is that markets have corrected thus far comparatively similar as prior years and we are seeing the "1997" price formations as of 11/23/07 close at the major supports. While we would see markets rallied at this juncture as we have seen during 1997 price formation at the major supports and during the seasonally favored months, markets are driven by news or using it to sell the market to multi-year low levels for individual stocks. For many stocks, markets are already heavily oversold while large cap stocks holding up markets; therefore, I am anticipating a bounce going into EOY. However, it is better to be prepared downside risk when the current supports are broken.
Show us the "1997" Fractal Formation!!!
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=24773149
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