Saturday, August 25, 2007 4:12:13 PM
This is my comment on 1997 scenario posted on 8/18.
It does not mean that I am expecting market to perform exactly the same.
The analysis provides a guide as to what to expect as this is a form of Fractal Analysis.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?Message_id=22292290&txt2find=1997
~~~
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?Message_id=22182595&txt2find=1997
Climactic action on 8/16/2007 = Climactic action on 10/28/1997 with extremely high volumes and the same VIX level to 37.
I commented on VIX breakout in Jun-Jul 2006 bottom call that market is showing similar pattern of 1995.
The current price pattern shows that we are in 1997 pattern when market corrected 10% after a correction of 7%+/- which is Jun-Jul 2006 low.
In 1997, we didn't have a retest of the low after similar "W" formation with lower/low with 10 %+/- correction which is the VIX level 37 which we have seen. After 1997 10% correction, market rallied 60% before 1998 correction of 20%.
In 1998, after 1997 bottom followed by a rally to 60%, we had 20% +/- correction with higher VIX level to 47.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=22181738
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=75014
1929 speculation is an old news:
Isn't many others claiming 1929 case with very high level of shorts and "Squeeze" on Friday. The short squeeze is just started, I think.
Now, I commented that housing market topped in 2005, yes, I called "Housing market top" in 2005 and commented extensively on RE/ARM/loan problems such as "subprime drama" during Jan-Mar 2006 comments.
As commented during Jun-Jul 2006 bottom call with VIX breakout pattern in 1995... now we have the 1997 pattern.
Well, will see, Squeezes will go on since we have many are already shorted.... nothing unexpected since the 1929 case is already an old news.
What's not old news is that it is 1997 case with the Fed intervention.....
Why do you think that we had the Fed intervention!! It is because, I think, that the high speculative manipulation of short side for "1929 case"!
Well, it is nonsensical to compare Apple & Orange. We are in GLOBAL ECONOMY.
~~~
As noted earlier, I built my case for "No Retest of the low". You will see my comment on my previous posts.
I just noticed a post on Swindlin.
Swindlin is building bearish case.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=22364914
However, as you can see:
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/main.html
On his 7/6/07 analysis: Market overshot his projection of 20 week low as he is showing on his second chart showing 1487 +/- to hold for 20 low. I may misinterpret his position since I have not read his post carefully.
On my previous posts, I commented that Mar 2007 low was the 9mo low and am looking for Sept/Oct low for 9mo low; however, markets have traded in higher volatility; therefore, I believe that the low has come early.
Also, I commented 1997 scenario which is showing "double" bottom; however, for ST trading, I do not believe that we have ST top.
Going back to Swindlin's 8/24 article:
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2007/0706.html
The formation of 1-2-3 and 1-2 does not reflect the same velocity of market momentum.
Using his indicator, we already have positive divergences on 1-2 compared to the 1-2-3 P.D. in Mar07.
Furthermore, I commented that the recent market correction is a fractal of Jun-Jul 2006 correction than Mar 2007 correction if we are to compare the 7/19-8/16 correction to those two, i.e. Jun-Jul 2006 and Mar 2007, since we are coming off from major weekly lows with positive divergences as commented on my breadth analysis; and now breadth actions are confirming price actions.
[chart]www.financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2007/images/070824_top-1.gif>
In conclusion: I do not believe that we have ST top, nor we will retest the bottom as noted on my previous comments with various analysis supporting my view; however, a 1997 formation with higher low before potential break above SPX 1550 which is my LT view since Jun-Jul 2006 bottom call and which I noted before 7/19 top call. The current correction didn't negate the view as the correction was consistent as expected even though it was in higher volatility in shorter timeframe.
I expect SPX 1450 +/- to hold and reassess.
It does not mean that I am expecting market to perform exactly the same.
The analysis provides a guide as to what to expect as this is a form of Fractal Analysis.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?Message_id=22292290&txt2find=1997
~~~
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?Message_id=22182595&txt2find=1997
Climactic action on 8/16/2007 = Climactic action on 10/28/1997 with extremely high volumes and the same VIX level to 37.
I commented on VIX breakout in Jun-Jul 2006 bottom call that market is showing similar pattern of 1995.
The current price pattern shows that we are in 1997 pattern when market corrected 10% after a correction of 7%+/- which is Jun-Jul 2006 low.
In 1997, we didn't have a retest of the low after similar "W" formation with lower/low with 10 %+/- correction which is the VIX level 37 which we have seen. After 1997 10% correction, market rallied 60% before 1998 correction of 20%.
In 1998, after 1997 bottom followed by a rally to 60%, we had 20% +/- correction with higher VIX level to 47.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=22181738
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=75014
1929 speculation is an old news:
Isn't many others claiming 1929 case with very high level of shorts and "Squeeze" on Friday. The short squeeze is just started, I think.
Now, I commented that housing market topped in 2005, yes, I called "Housing market top" in 2005 and commented extensively on RE/ARM/loan problems such as "subprime drama" during Jan-Mar 2006 comments.
As commented during Jun-Jul 2006 bottom call with VIX breakout pattern in 1995... now we have the 1997 pattern.
Well, will see, Squeezes will go on since we have many are already shorted.... nothing unexpected since the 1929 case is already an old news.
What's not old news is that it is 1997 case with the Fed intervention.....
Why do you think that we had the Fed intervention!! It is because, I think, that the high speculative manipulation of short side for "1929 case"!
Well, it is nonsensical to compare Apple & Orange. We are in GLOBAL ECONOMY.
~~~
As noted earlier, I built my case for "No Retest of the low". You will see my comment on my previous posts.
I just noticed a post on Swindlin.
Swindlin is building bearish case.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=22364914
However, as you can see:
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/main.html
On his 7/6/07 analysis: Market overshot his projection of 20 week low as he is showing on his second chart showing 1487 +/- to hold for 20 low. I may misinterpret his position since I have not read his post carefully.
On my previous posts, I commented that Mar 2007 low was the 9mo low and am looking for Sept/Oct low for 9mo low; however, markets have traded in higher volatility; therefore, I believe that the low has come early.
Also, I commented 1997 scenario which is showing "double" bottom; however, for ST trading, I do not believe that we have ST top.
Going back to Swindlin's 8/24 article:
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2007/0706.html
The formation of 1-2-3 and 1-2 does not reflect the same velocity of market momentum.
Using his indicator, we already have positive divergences on 1-2 compared to the 1-2-3 P.D. in Mar07.
Furthermore, I commented that the recent market correction is a fractal of Jun-Jul 2006 correction than Mar 2007 correction if we are to compare the 7/19-8/16 correction to those two, i.e. Jun-Jul 2006 and Mar 2007, since we are coming off from major weekly lows with positive divergences as commented on my breadth analysis; and now breadth actions are confirming price actions.
[chart]www.financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2007/images/070824_top-1.gif>
In conclusion: I do not believe that we have ST top, nor we will retest the bottom as noted on my previous comments with various analysis supporting my view; however, a 1997 formation with higher low before potential break above SPX 1550 which is my LT view since Jun-Jul 2006 bottom call and which I noted before 7/19 top call. The current correction didn't negate the view as the correction was consistent as expected even though it was in higher volatility in shorter timeframe.
I expect SPX 1450 +/- to hold and reassess.
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