Re: 1) 1919 Market Rally: So, how much did the market rally in those initial months? (Therefore the correction from the rally top was how much? Far less than 25%). Also, the point is, the initial move was UP not down. Therefore Bears, anticipating the end of the War (and who assumed they could profit), got ripped. War-ends are followed by significant rallies.
2) 1945 ditto. In 1945, the DJIA rallied from 150 to 213.36 in June of 1946, before correcting. The subsequent correction reached a low of 162 - above the low of 1945.
3) 1952 Ditto. The Markets NEVER saw a lower low than the 1952 closing low.
4) 1975 Still stands both short and long-term test.
4) My point is, that near-term trading on the basis of the expectation that an end to the war will provide a short-term trading opportunity to the downside, is hazardous to your wallet's health. Secondly, after consolidation, they tend to usher-in extraordinary gains.
JL
