On the rosy side, if things work out as planned, they will close over 740 million in commercial loans by end of December, and earn a 5 percent fee, and minimal operating expenses = 35 million in pre-tax profit.
This should be about 20 million plus in net, after tax profit, in 2007, and that would be a major bagger. Just give them a P/E of 3 to 5, and we have a market cap of 60 - 100 million.
Once the first deal closes, the big work will be done, and the 740 million should crank out, as well as additional future blocks. The delay's you asked about were discussed by company in the recent PR / Shareholder letter. Generally, it's the time it takes for a new, creative commercial loan product to be accepted as mainstream. No doubt, there have been many delays.
I firmly believe the deal is real, and their intentions true....our enemy has been time. But it is starting to feel like we are near the finish line now.
