I would tend to agree with dewophile, although right now I have far more RPRX than JAV.
JAV should be a relatively low-risk play, at least in comparison with RPRX. I say that with some hesitation because someone--or a group of someones--is f*cking with JAV hard. There's no other reason why a stock like this would go up and down like it has.
JAV's products are much lower risk than RPRX's. With the latter, you have not one but two novel molecular entities with novel mechanisms of action (at least from an approval standpoint). With androxal, we have a drug that could be considered by some a lifestyle drug, which will face very large hurdles for approval. That said, if either Androxal or Proellex succeed, the sky's the limit.
Compare with JAV: Three relatively low-risk products--one (ketamine) that has essentially been approved already, and one (Dyloject) that is about as unexciting a drug as you can imagine. Remember that The Medicines Company's former 1-billion dollar market cap was supported by Angiomax alone, a $200 to $250 million dollar product. JAV has more potential than that when the pipeline is taken together, and I'd argue it's products are lower risk.
I think we're also discounting the possibility that JAV could be purchased. I know for a fact that The Medicines Company is actively looking at other companies with hospital-based products to acquire.
I have only a trivial investment in JAV, just waiting for it to get done oscillating. Then I'll scale in to a position that is at least equivalent to my RPRX position, if not more.
When looking at comparators, JAV should have a value of $400-500M even before approval of Dyloject, and more after. Again, all of this is in the context of a market in which stocks are valued according to their potential. JAV right now is being used hard as a trading vehicle.
