I've always thought RPRX had that billion dollar potential, whereas JAV was a lower risk investment with potential for perhaps a nice double. but if you're talking strictly 6 months i guess it breaks down as follows:
1. RPRX - the biggest mover willb e the FDA androxal meeting. frankly I have zero feel for how its going to go, and you need to be prepared to take a short term hit if clinical endpoints are required in ph 3 (despite the fact androxal has for the most part been discounted to account for this requirement)..however if a biochemical endpoint will suffice then the stock can soar..even with a clinical endpoint requirement they might be able to sell androxal this year..on the proellex front there isn't much to move the stock in 6 months (i think everyone knows and expects the ph 3 to be initiated later this year). However, I don't think the market has fully absorbed the recent positive safety data for proellex so there could be some buy interest that is now on the sidelines simply due to the macro environment. lastly, even though JP indicates they plan to M&A the company likely in mid-2008 one never knows when exactly that will occur - so that is kind of a wild card
2. JAV - the 6 month timeline is mainly about dyloject - MAA approval, approval in Germany 6 months later, and top line data from phase 3 US dyloject study later this year. I also think some Ketamine data will be released soon. All are relatively low risk events that could easily see the stock appreciate to double-digits. unlike androxal where there s a real wild card with the FDA meeting in there, JAV doesn't really have that imo although the UK could delay approval for dyloject based on some manufacturing issue - but i woudl say the odds of that are far less than the FDA requiring more rigorous endpoints for androxal
that's my quick take off the top of my head - please feel free to correct or amend if i missed something
right now i have more JAV than RPRX as I'm playing the very near-term dyloject decision in the UK
