Wave Systems Corp. (fka WAVXQ)

[Ispro]

What we know and what we don´t know....just my opinion.....

When I look on the 1 year SP graphik we see, that our SP is there where it was a year ago. In anticipation of the Seagate FDEs the SP rose to over 3.4 and fell back to 1.78, since the execution lasts longer than anybody expected. We had a financing, the options issue and revenues are not that high we´ve awaited for this time.

So what´s the difference between now and then?
we know...

- We´ve more OS but nearby the same SP
- We earn more money a quarter than the hole year 2005 and we´ll easily double our earnings of 2006. And this WITHOUT any upgrades or FDEs or server sided software.
- We are in ALL new and exsisting Dell business models
- GTW and Intel have more models with Embassy
- Seagate IS NOW SHIPPING to Dell, ASI, TAROX (where we get money) and others.
- We´ve sold ETDM and ERAS seats THIS Q
- Most of the OEMs and White Boxers equip their machines with TPMs
- DoD and other agencies mandate AND buy already TPM machines and a few Wave seats (according to Q2CC SKS)

we don´t know...

- WHEN we´ll reach BE
- IF reaching BE is that important for the SP, with regard to the growth of the enterprise. (imagine revenues of 50M/Q without having reached BE...)
- WHEN new OEMs will join Wave (IMO the FDEs and the centralized management will be the driver for new OEMs to join the party)
- WHEN DoD WILL buy (and ANNOUNCE these buys) software from Wave
- WHEN the first HUGE enterprises will change their security architecture
- WHAT the SP will do, WHEN we announce contracts with gov or major companies out there

what shall we do....

If I knew, but for now, the worst thing we can do is whining, complaining or selling, IMO. Nothing will change the SP except downwards and NOTHING will accelerate Waves revenue ramp. It is what it is and since I believe that most of us are underwater, selling now, right before phase2 (enterprise upgrades and server software) would not be the smartest thing we can do. Sure there is a risk here, but we all know this and knew that when we bought in, but things are looking MUCH better now, than one or two years ago. The world of security IS changing, the question remains, IF Wave will become (remain) the leading part of this new security paradigm.....

I think so, I´ll stay in and do my DD, what about you?

Have a nice sunday all

BR

ISPRO