Effective Control Transport Inc. (fka EFFC)

[doogdilinger]

joenatural...I stumbled across this post of yours late last night & I hope you don't mind...but I think it's a great read that really sums of a lot of the factors currently in play so I'm going to repost for all those who may have missed it:

Posted by: joenatural
In reply to: None Date:7/28/2007 3:16:53 PM
Post #of 8498

Spectacular CC or not, one had better take into consideration this before thinking you can flip for cheaper shares .......

For example:

Let's play devil's advocate for a minute. With 75 million O/S (as verified by Selam Tewolde, soon to be verified by the T/A), let's just say the company (which curently has ZERO debt) only makes $3.9 million in net income on an annual basis. This works out to an EPS of .052 and with a P/E of a measley 10, guess what ? We have a PPS of .52, the closing price from yesterday.

With an 80% gross profit margin and using a 70% net profit margin (taken from company public information officer), the company would only have to produce annual revenue of $5.57 million to produce the above results. Hmmmmmmmm ......

I guess my first question would be if the company can produce $5.57 million in annual revenue. Based upon current announced contracts and LOI's over just the last 4 weeks, it appears the answer is a pretty solid yes.

In also playing devil's advocate, I will also assume that the cost reduction via the acquisition of Argo Navigation has already been calculated into the 70% net profit figure above.

If the company does indeed achieve $100 million in contracts this year or anything close to it, you can take the above P/E ratio of 10 and throw it as far as you can out the window.

I see three scenarios here:

1) You can flip right away and lock in your hamburger with fries (aka) a "Happy Meal."

2) You can hold your shares and possibly flip on down the road in exchange for the chance to buy a new house and pay for it with cash.

3) The company ends up being a huge scam and everything below never happened

a) No products sold, only shares
b) Potential auditors were never on site to examine anything
c) Company never expanded from 16 to 25 employees
d) Company never actually met with the D.O.T.
e) Company never actually met with Canada's version of the D.O.T.
f) Company never bought Argo Navigation, a company doing $10 million a year
g) Company never intended on approaching the airline, railroad and busing industry
h) Claude Robert (President of the Canadian Trucking Alliance) was in on the scam the entire time

At a PPS of .52, you must decide your own fate. I am personally choosing option #2 from above for the following reasons:

1) I find Selam Tewolde to be a very credible and truthful person, one who is ecstatic about the company's growth
2) I find Raphael Huppe's past accomplishments (from age 16 to his current age of 29) as nothing short of amazing and I don't feel he has plans of altering that direction
3) There is a beachfront condo here in Playa Del Carmen that can be bought for $980K and I think MCCY can possibly allow me to pay for it with cash
4) I feel that NITE is really really in trouble and once he's out from under his mess, it's clear sailing to who knows where
5) I like the frugality of Canadians, especially the fact that Raphael and three others drove 1 1/2 hours south of Montreal to Burlington, VT on Wednesday to catch their plane to Washington, D.C. since the savings on air fare was substantial, demonstrating to me a characteristic of perfectionism
6) I relish the fact that the company has ZERO debt
7) I truly feel the annual revenues will blow away the $5.57 million figure noted above earlier
8) I know that $100 million in proven annual revenues will fetch a stock price somewhere between $8.00 and $40.00 depending on the company's future ability to grow and what P/E ratio investors are willing to assign the company
9) Assuming the market for MCCY's products grows steadily, I view the company as a target for takeover
10) The acquisition of Argo Navigation (a $10 million in annual sales company) will add to enormous revenue stream and many more opportunities will arise for each company to target the other's customer base, as noted by MCCY and Jason Shin, the current President of Argo Navigation
11) Upon breaking the $1.00 barrier, the company will receive a great deal more attention from financial institutions and investors with deep pockets
12) I applaud the fact that auditors have already been on site and uplisting appears to be imminent, not to mention Selam's quote of "The audit will be rather easy since the company has no debt."
14) Knowing there are less shares available as the PPS rises, thus newly convinced investors will drive up the PPS at a much faster rate than has been seen to date, especially once NITE is not in focus
15) Knowing the company employee roster expands from 16 to 25 by the end of this month and the fact that an Executive V.P. of Sales for Canada is about to be named, allegedly a name with much clout and prestige
16) Knowing an office in Paris is now open for business
17) Knowing sales globally will launch MCCY into another orbit
18) Knowing that the D.O.T. was most likely very impressed with what they witnessed this week
19) I think the "FOLO" system will be accepted by the transportation industry as the iPod is accepted by today's population

There are many other reasons for me choosing option #2 from above and at .52, I feel my investment (yes, I use the word INVESTMENT) is not only safe, but will be looked back on at the end of the year with much joy.