Baseball Chat

[ghmm]

For you Bill James Fans. Todays Journal had a nice article. He has an interesting contrarian opinion on the effect of steroids on performance.

http://www.opinionjournal.com/la/?id=110010232

Sultan of Stats
How Bill James's analysis has helpd make the Red Sox into winners.

BY DAN ACKMAN
Wednesday, June 20, 2007 12:01 a.m. EDT

BOSTON--After 25 years on the outside, Bill James was invited to take a seat at the center of the baseball universe. Since his hiring by the Boston Red Sox in 2002, Mr. James, the statistical oracle and author of the Bill James Baseball Abstracts, the team has broken the Curse of the Bambino, won the World Series and is currently tearing up the American League.

As Mr. James, raised on the Kansas City Athletics, is a Yankee-hater from way back, he might be expected to take even more pleasure in the New York team's faltering start to the season. But sitting in a restaurant a long fly ball from his bare office in Fenway Park, Mr. James refuses to revel. "Who was it who wrote the book 'They Only Look Dead'?" Mr. James asks. He also refuses to take credit for the Red Sox rise. "Nothing I do leads directly to consequence, and if it did I wouldn't tell you," Mr. James says.

Indirectly, it's a different story. Starting in 1977 with his first Baseball Abstract, Mr. James transformed a century's worth of conventional wisdom and forever altered the way ballplayers are judged. Applying the scientific method to the game, he and a band of amateur analysts who Mr. James termed sabermetricians (for the Society for American Baseball Research) attempted to answer through objective statistical analysis what factors led to scoring runs and winning games--and which players contributed most to those goals. Mr. James, for instance, has long held that the ability to get on base was underrated and that the sacrifice bunt was overrated. After gaining a wide following among fans, his work started to influence at least a few baseball general managers, a process chronicled in "Moneyball," the 2003 best seller by Michael Lewis about the Oakland Athletics and General Manager Billy Beane.

Now, more than 20 books of his own later, Mr. James has a desk in Fenway Park and a title, senior baseball operations adviser. So what does he do for the team? "I see it as being my job to ensure as much as I can that we act on the basis of actual evidence."

Of course, if it weren't for hope and blind faith, interest in the Red Sox might have dried up years ago. As it is, the team, with its current eight-game lead over the Yankees, has never been more popular, and Fenway is sold out almost every night. As for the Curse of the Bambino, Mr. James says: "I didn't even believe in it before."

Mr. James, a rationalist in a church of red-blooded true believers, takes the long view: "In any given season there is an immense amount of luck in who wins the division, even if it's a lopsided race," he says. "People are made very uncomfortable by the notion that our lives are random, but there are huge random parts in everything that happens. It's uncomfortable because it's our job to drive the randomness out and make the system work."

Since Mr. James was hired by Red Sox owner John Henry in 2002, the team has yet to win the division. It did, however, win the World Series in 2004, beating the Yankees in seven games to win the pennant. A year earlier, the Sox lost to the Yankees in seven games. Two years later they had fallen to third place in the American League East.

What accounts for this year's dominance? "We think we have a good organization, and we thought we had a good organization last August when we couldn't win a game to save our soul," Mr. James says. With "Moneyball," Mr. James's style of analysis has become associated with relatively poor teams. The Red Sox, however, are one of the richest.

"There is a certain backwardness to it, yes," he concedes. But he adds that Boston is "committed to the challenge to figuring out the best way to do things. Nobody in the organization is traditional."

That would include Mr. James, who started writing his Abstracts while working as a night watchman at a pork-and-beans factory in Lawrence, Kan. Even as his fame grew as a writer, Mr. James says he never imagined working in baseball management. Unlike Theo Epstein, who interned for major-league clubs in college and was hired as the Red Sox general manager at age 28, Mr. James says he was never the type to put together a résumé and go find a job. Even today he allows that "there are very good reasons why Theo is the GM and I am not."

Now age 57, Mr. James says he does better working in an organization than he suspected. Still, even after moving to Boston two years ago, he spends a lot of time alone. "A lot of my friends think that I don't like people. The reality is I do like people--I just need time to myself to work. So I tend to turn off my cellphone," he says.

With the success of the Athletics and of "Moneyball," baseball analysts like Mr. James were given more credit for helping teams draft and trade players more intelligently. In 2006, Time magazine named Mr. James one of the 100 most influential people in the world. Inexplicably, Time dropped him from this year's list even as the Red Sox moved from third place to first. Go figure.

Mr. James is known for claiming that some statistics (such as runs batted in) are less important than was commonly believed, while others (like on-base percentage) are more important. Both are now conventional wisdom. Is there some wrongheadedness still in vogue? "I do have an answer, but I can't tell you what it is. . . . I do think we know at least some small things that not everybody in the world knows."

Even if the analytical tools he helped create are now widely employed, Mr. James says that just as some teams stay richer, others can stay smarter. "In reality, knowledge is a very dynamic universe--and what is most valuable is not the body of knowledge, but the leading edge of it."

Mr. James does allow that "when a team has resources, there is a powerful tendency to solve problems by spending money. It is less attractive to experiment." The Yankees' recent signing of pitcher Roger Clemens for $28 million a season is "probably" an illustration of the idea, he says.

"I have a lot of oddball ideas. I always have," Mr. James says, even if some of his ideas once considered odd are now popular.

His theory on baseball and steroids may or may not be odd, but it is certainly not in vogue. "I don't know," he says, when asked if steroids account for the surge in home runs in the late 1990s. "Speaking globally . . . the reality is that there are many changes in the game which could cause batting numbers to jump. And no one really knows to what extent the increase is a consequence of steroids. I strongly suspect that the influence of steroids on hitting numbers is greatly overstated by the public." Other factors include ballpark dimensions and bat design. "I've never understood why nobody writes about it, but the bats are very different now than they were 20 years ago," Mr. James says, with different woods and finishes. "[Barry] Bonds's bats are still different from everybody else's," he notes.

"People think they understand how to win in baseball much more than they really do," Mr. James says. This is true of the statisticians as much as it is of traditional scouts. While "Moneyball" treats scouts and analysts as at odds, Mr. James says he learns from the scouts all the time. "The scouts see a lot of things that I can't see. And some of the things they see I have learned to see. But some of the things they see I can't see at all. And I'm not suggesting it's not real, it's just that I can't see it," he says. "There is no reason for there to be a conflict. The conflict exists only when people think they know more than they do."

After a lifetime of studying the game, Mr. James reckons he still has plenty to learn. The internationalization of the game is one source of new wisdom, he says. "One of the great things about the Cubans and the Japanese is that they develop their own traditions and a lot of the things we think they know they don't necessarily buy into. Incorporating those other traditions is a source of wealth for baseball, and if we're smart, we'll do more of it."

Ichiro Suzuki, the Seattle Mariners centerfielder and perennial hits leader, is one example. "He's a great player while violating 48 rules about how everybody is taught to hit," Mr. James says. Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez, the wily Cuban-born New York Mets pitcher, is another case in point. "We have a set pitching pattern, and then you get a guy like El Duque doing everything wrong and he beats you. It's a wonderful object lesson for all of us."

Mr. Ackman writes for The Wall Street Journal about sports, culture and law.