Thursday, January 01, 2004 8:51:35 PM
Fact is, if I disagreed with your assertion that a smart guy willing to take risk can succeed, I wouldn't own IDCC. I just think that anyone who manages money must understand that the academic approach to investing (developed over the last thirty years and producing multiple Noble prizes) includes the theory that markets are incredibly efficient.
Here's one more study that reflects active managers (stock pickers) performance through 2002 when the conventional wisdom was that indexing would destroy portfolios:
http://www.indexfunds.com/archives/articles/swedroe_larry_20021122_actively_managed_funds.htm
Excerpt:
The greater volatility of stocks and the bear market presented active managers with a great opportunity to make their case. Yet the evidence is as strong as ever that active management is a loser's game. It is not that you cannot win the game of active investing. Instead it is that the odds of winning, combined now with increased risks/costs of losing, are so low that unless you place a tremendous price on the entertainment value of active investing, it does not pay to play.
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