Idenix Pharmaceuticals (IDIX)

[DewDiligence]

>Anyone know what they will actually report - will it be topline PK data only or efficacy data only or both?<

1. % PCR-negative in each trial arm.

2. Yes/no on whether there is a meaningful drug interaction.

>Everyone seems to think the 10% is a no-brainer.<

I don’t think it’s a no-brainer because there could be a meaningful drug interaction. Provided that there is no meaningful drug interaction, I think the 10% increment is likely but not automatic.

To put some numbers on this, I think the probability of a meaningful drug interaction is 18%. In the 82% of cases where there is no meaningful drug interaction, I think the 10% increment in PCR-negativity at 12 weeks can be achieved with a probability of 74%. Thus, my probabilities give a 61% (.82x.74) chance of a successful trial.

(Please don’t hassle me about using numbers that are not rounded to the nearest 5%. As a backgammon player, that’s simply the way I think.)

Your guesses on the price action seem reasonable. Regards, Dew