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Re: iwfal post# 3712

Sunday, 05/20/2007 6:16:12 PM

Sunday, May 20, 2007 6:16:12 PM

Post# of 12660
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought that you yourself mentioned that similar log rank results to the combined 9901/9902A dataset would have something like a 50-50 shot of hitting stat sig on the interim look if the reserved alpha was 0.01. I think that's assuming an HR of about 1.45, right? Assuming that the final unblinding occurs after Q1 2010, and considering (1) the larger trial size and (2) this would take place over three years after the 400th patient enrolled, then if Provenge is effective, it should easily beat p=0.03. So if that is the case then why not reserve more than what you normally would at the first interim?

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