Baseball Chat

[DewDiligence]

How likely is a sequence of four consecutive HR’s?

If you figure an average batter hits a HR once per 30 plate appearances and, for the sake of simplicity, you assume that every batter is an average hitter, then four consecutive HR’s should happen on average once in each 810,000 four-batter sequences. For a given team, this should occur on average about once every 500 seasons. For MLB as a whole, it should happen on average about once every 17 years.