Friday, December 05, 2003 11:52:01 AM
Fib #'s are a tool. Like any other tool you can use it, or not.
IF you were to draw a channel with respect to AMD's recent run up (6-9 months) you'd see a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. (Remember, the trend is your friend until it ends. OR, be right and sit tight.) Now you have Fib's suggesting a possible retracement point wich, coincidently, is near the lower end of the channel. Add to those TWO data points some conviction (everyone has to work that out on their own) and you have a decent entry/re-entry point.
I wouldn't ever rely solely on Fib's - but I'm always aware.
I've read somewhere during this thread, (I'm not attributing this to you, Doug.) that Fib's/TA are a self-fullfilling prophecy. Murphy addresses this early on in the book. I'll look it up if anyone has an interest. Here's a link to Amazon.com where you can read the introduction and philosphy;
http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/0735200661/ref=sib_dp_pt/002-0910542-1611210#reader-link
If you, or anyone for that matter, are interested in learning more about Fibs you can Google out any one of a Gazillion web sites - like this one;
http://www-gap.dcs.st-and.ac.uk/~history/Mathematicians/Fibonacci.html
Having said all that, I find TA to be a usefull tool after finding fundamentaly sound investment idea's.
Best,
Jack
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