Per Month Fee in Mexico:
Pokestake, thanks for alerting me to the fact that the per month fee to be charged in the Mexico JV can be approximated from the Mexico projections contained in the new link.
I've put together a figure of about $33 - $36 per month, using somewhat different assumptions.
Connecting the subscriber data points
(0,0), (1,62), (2,150), and (3,250)
[ (year, projected number of subscribers by year end in thousands) ]
visually yields an approximately linear pattern. I don't think that the short doubling time you propose is supported by this pattern.
Here is my method:
Form the graph connecting the above data points, except express time in months instead of years:
(0,0), (12,62), (24,150), and (36,250).
The area of the region under this graph represents the total number of (thousands of) subscriber*months, on which the revenue will be based.
Assuming the graph is a straight line between adjacent data points, the area is approximately
12*62/2 + 12*(62+150)/2 + 12*(150+250)/2
= 12*31 + 12*106 + 12*200
= 12*(337)
= 4044.
That is, there are approximately 4044 thousand subscriber*months.
The total revenue at the end of three years is projected to be 132 million.
Revenue = (subscriber*months) * (per month fee).
Thus (per month fee) = Revenue / (subscriber*months)
= 132 million / 4044 thousand
= 32.64.
My method tends to slightly over-estimate the number of (subscriber*months), so the figure given for (per month fee) is most likely a slight under-estimate, although I am not sure to what degree. A fee in the range $33 - $36 or so seems likely to me, however. The upper end of this range is currently about 400 pesos.
- guy6
AI
