There's still ongoing chatter about the huge revision to U.S. job growth seen yesterday and what it might signify for the economy and markets. 818,000 jobs were wiped out in the 12 months through March 2024 (or 68,000 per month), resulting in the biggest downward adjustment since the global financial crisis. Data revisions are common, but usually not to that degree, even with the large standard deviation typically assigned to non-farm payroll figures.
Not an exact science: The Bureau of Labor Statistics usually surveys 100K-150K businesses each month, but the department then extrapolates from those surveys to get an estimate of how many jobs were created in the entire economy. Later on, the quarterly re-estimation process looks at 60M business records, many of which were not available at the time of the initial monthly payroll releases. The records can include unemployment benefits, seasonal hiring for the holidays, and unavoidable lags, such as delayed payroll data, which can give a better picture of overall economic activity.
Technically, the BLS could publish the data once it has all the reports to avoid revisions. However, many participants need access to the earliest possible read on labor market developments, like policymakers and lawmakers, as well as business owners and investors. Initial estimates are generally in line with trends, but the accuracy of the BLS data has been called into question more recently, with requests to revise the birth-death models of corporations or other influential factors including undocumented migrants.
What it means: Despite the major revision that had largely been expected, trends still appear to be positive. Instead of 250K payroll additions per month, the figure was around the 185K-200K mark on average, which likely would have led to the same monetary policy regime from the Fed over the past year. That might look different going forward given the rising unemployment rate, thereby cementing a Fed rate cut in September. The dovishness even got markets excited on Wednesday, especially after FOMC minutes showed such an action was likely, with stocks rising amid chatter of deeper rate cuts.
See a full breakdown of the industry revisions, which largely focused on the most cyclically sensitive sectors.
Union lockout
It's official! Canada's two main freight rail companies, Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) and Canadian National Railway (CNI), have shut down their rail networks in the country after contract negotiations broke down. Rating agency Moody's projected that the lockout, which will take 75% of Canada's freight rail traffic offline, could cost the economy over C$341M ($251M) per day, which is equal to more than 4% of its GDP. About a third of the traffic moved by CN Rail and CPKC also makes its way into the U.S., likely impacting cross-border trade and disrupting North American supply chains. (3 comments)
Succession planning
Disney (DIS) has chosen board member and Morgan Stanley (MS) executive chairman James Gorman to lead the committee that will find a successor for top boss Bob Iger. Other executives in the group include Disney chairman Mark Parker, as well as board members like GM (GM) CEO Mary Barra. The move marks a significant step forward in the succession process for Iger since Disney formed the committee last January. Iger left Disney in 2020 and picked Bob Chapek as his successor, but was brought back to the company in November 2022. (5 comments)
EV strategy
Ford (F) is overhauling its electric vehicle strategy, which includes dropping a plan for a new electric SUV and pivoting toward hybrid versions. The Detroit automaker's EV business has continued to bleed money, with prior forecasts that it would lose between $5B and $5.5B in 2024. The strategy shift is expected to cost Ford up to $1.9B, including a $400M non-cash charge for the write-down of SUV manufacturing assets. It will also delay the successor to the F-150 Lightning, trim capex on pure EVs, and ramp up U.S. battery production. (2 comments)
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan +0.7%. Hong Kong +1.4%. China -0.3%. India +0.2%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.2%. Paris +0.2%. Frankfurt +0.2%.
Futures at 7:00, Dow +0.1%. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq +0.2%. Crude +0.5% to $72.27. Gold -0.1% to $2,543.90. Bitcoin +3.1% to $61,271.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +2 bps to 3.83%.
Today's Economic Calendar
Jackson Hole Economic Symposium
08:30 AM Jobless Claims
08:30 AM Chicago Fed National Activity Index
09:45 AM PMI Composite Flash
10:00 AM Existing Home Sales
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Report
11:00 AM Kansas City Fed Mfg Index
04:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
Companies reporting earnings today »
What else is happening...
Report: Bronfman sweetens Paramount (PARA) offer to $6B.
Apple (AAPL) App Store head Matt Fischer to leave in October.
Macy's (M) shares see worst day in a year on bearish outlook.
TD sets aside $2.6B to settle U.S. probe, sells Schwab shares.
Big investment from McDonald's (MCD) in the U.K. and Ireland.
Microsoft (MSFT) updates 2025 investor metrics and segments.
Snowflake (SNOW) boosts guidance, but billings disappoint.
Zoom (ZM) results, outlook crush estimates; CFO to resign.
Enbridge cuts pipeline tolls as Trans Mountain adds competition.
RFK Jr. planning to drop out of presidential race, endorse Trump.
AI
