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Friday, 08/02/2024 5:08:26 PM

Friday, August 02, 2024 5:08:26 PM

Post# of 733276
August Is Usually Tough for Markets. Just Look at Today.( BARRONS)
Welcome to August. The lazy, hazy days of summer may be a time for beach vacations and baseball, but they're also when market bears can come out of hibernation.

They certainly did on Thursday.
Stocks slid following weak jobless claims and manufacturing reports. And if history is any guide, August could be a tough one for investors. According to data from Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, August is just one of three months where the S&P 500 has posted an average decline since 1945. February and, perhaps more ominously since it comes next, September are the only two others.

“What makes investors cautious about these months is that they have sported below-average frequencies of price increases, and September is the only month to have fallen more frequently than it has risen, since it has declined an average of 57% of the time,” Stovall wrote in a report.

But before you sell in August if you must (doesn’t have quite the same ring as sell in May and go away) you can take solace from the fact that stocks actually have done well in the Augusts of presidential election years.
Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, wrote in a blog post Wednesday that “June, July, and August are historically the best three months for investors in an election year and this year has again rewarded them so far.”

The S&P 500 has gone up an average of 2.1% a year in election years dating back to 1928, according to data from Carson and FactSet.
Of course, investors need to focus more on earnings and economic data than the calendar (or politics for that matter) when making decisions about their portfolio.
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