Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[falconer66a]

The report’s revenue projections.

The growing aging population is forecast to see the number of people with Alzheimer’s Disease increase significantly from the 35 million globally in 2024, becoming a significant economic burden. Alzheimer’s Disease represents a very large market for blarcamesine with forecast peak sales in our base case scenario of US$15.4 billion.

https://cdn.fbsbx.com/v/t59.2708-21/453669608_1075638987417664_6428007278213907997_n.pdf/AVXL-research-report.pdf?_nc_cat=106&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=2b0e22&_nc_ohc=UEulsvPqJyQQ7kNvgEBnMdm&_nc_ht=cdn.fbsbx.com&oh=03_Q7cD1QHdTteiU0nc9KfNukpA6OX2ooXPmjlYWsfmzcq-dE2g4g&oe=66AC5F8E&dl=1

Ok, for owners of AVXL shares, what might the $15.4 billion annual Anavex revenues mean? For yourself, determine, conservatively, how much of these revenues would go out as stock dividends each year.

I’ll presume, conservatively, by the time Anavex distributes annual dividends there will be (convenient for calculation) 100 million AVXL shares, 100,000,000. Presently, Anavex has about 82 million outstanding shares in circulation.

In a few years, what percentage of the anticipated $15.4 billion annual revenues ($15,400,000,000) will be dropped down to go out as dividends, for the then 100,000,000 dividend-gaining shares in circulation?

Check (or choose) the metrics.

If only 1% of the $15,400,000,000 of revenues goes out as dividends, that’s a total of $154,000,000; which would be $1.54 per share.

If it’s a 5% figure, dividends would total $770,000,000; a rate of $7.70 per share.

If 10% of annual revenues are dropped down to go out as dividends, it would be a dividend total of $1,540,000,000, a per-share rate of $15.40.

Later, I expect Anavex will gain approvals to treat a number of other CNS diseases with their unique sigma-1 receptor activators. Parkinson’s, schizophrenia, and the others listed in the Anavex pipeline. Considerable annual revenues from each of these; especially when considering global, not just US or European drug markets.

Over the years, with purely discretionary funds (funds that can be lost without harm) I’ve accumulated an AVXL position of several thousand shares. The metrics of any of my scenarios will be rewarding. In my estate’s legal documents it is noted that I intend to never sell an AVXL share. I’ll receive whatever dividends Anavex distributes, but at my death the ownership of my AVXLs will pass to the listed beneficiaries of my estate; primarily to my wife and children.

All of this is, by definition, long-term investing. Day-trading stock price speculators so frequently post their Anavex comments here. Fun to read — but they don’t apply to me (and many or most readers of this message board).

In five years, I’ll check back in with a report, to see if what I’ve envisioned actually occurred. Accumulating data and reports are all pointing in positive directions. I’m sleeping well (even without taking any blarcamesine). I’m patient.